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Flexible shrinkage in portfolio selection

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Author Info

  • Golosnoy, Vasyl
  • Okhrin, Yarema

Abstract

How to quantify estimation risk is important in portfolio selection. For this purpose we derive the flexible shrinkage estimator for the optimal portfolio weights, which allows dynamic adjustments of model structure. Our estimator is based on grouping the assets in order to capture non-homogeneity of estimation risk. The assets are assigned to groups using a clustering procedure with the number of groups determined from the data. The proposed flexible shrinkage approach exhibits sound and robust performance compared to the popular portfolio selection alternatives.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V85-4SV5V2P-1/2/3186fe2f272ec51d4a35eb710c92e931
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 317-328

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:317-328

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Estimation risk and model uncertainty k-means clustering Model structure amount Multivariate shrinkage estimator;

References

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  1. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
  2. Yarema Okhrin & Wolfgang Schmid, 2008. "Estimation Of Optimal Portfolio Weights," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(03), pages 249-276.
  3. Wang, Hansheng & Li, Guodong & Jiang, Guohua, 2007. "Robust Regression Shrinkage and Consistent Variable Selection Through the LAD-Lasso," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 347-355, July.
  4. Zhenyu Wang, 2005. "A Shrinkage Approach to Model Uncertainty and Asset Allocation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 673-705.
  5. N. T. Longford, 1999. "Multivariate shrinkage estimation of small area means and proportions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 162(2), pages 227-245.
  6. Tola, Vincenzo & Lillo, Fabrizio & Gallegati, Mauro & Mantegna, Rosario N., 2008. "Cluster analysis for portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 235-258, January.
  7. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
  8. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 279-292, September.
  9. Wolfgang Haerdle & Helmut Herwartz & Volodia Spokoiny, 2000. "Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modelling," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1429, Econometric Society.
  10. Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2007. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 41-81, January.
  11. Duan Li & Wan-Lung Ng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean-Variance Formulation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 387-406.
  12. Raftery, Adrian E. & Dean, Nema, 2006. "Variable Selection for Model-Based Clustering," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 168-178, March.
  13. Vasyl Golosnoy & Yarema Okhrin, 2007. "Multivariate Shrinkage for Optimal Portfolio Weights," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 441-458.
  14. Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
  15. Klein, Roger W. & Bawa, Vijay S., 1976. "The effect of estimation risk on optimal portfolio choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 215-231, June.
  16. Martin R. Young & Peter J. Lenk, 1998. "Hierarchical Bayes Methods for Multifactor Model Estimation and Portfolio Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(11-Part-2), pages S111-S124, November.
  17. Okhrin, Yarema & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2006. "Distributional properties of portfolio weights," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 235-256, September.
  18. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2006. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection by Augmentingthe Asset Space," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2187-2217, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Bajeux-Besnainou, Isabelle & Bandara, Wachindra & Bura, Efstathia, 2012. "A Krylov subspace approach to large portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1688-1699.

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