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From Uncertainties to Solutions: A Scenario-Based Framework for an Agriculture Protection Zone in Magic Valley Idaho

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Cronan

    (Department of Landscape Architecture, College of Environmental Science and Forestry (ESF), State University of New York, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
    Center for Resilient Communities, Moscow, ID 83844, USA)

  • E. Jamie Trammell

    (Center for Resilient Communities, Moscow, ID 83844, USA
    College of Environmental Science, Southern Oregon University, Ashland, OR 97520, USA)

  • Andrew Kliskey

    (Center for Resilient Communities, Moscow, ID 83844, USA
    Landscape Architecture Program, College of Art and Architecture, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA)

Abstract

As growth in the western U.S. continues to lead to the development of land, pressure is being exerted on agricultural production, and could lead to the loss of prime agricultural land. A wide array of perspectives concerning agricultural protection requires a variety of possible solutions. Diverse and plausible scenarios, driven by stakeholders, can be modeled by researchers to guide potential solutions to address key challenges within a region. This paper addresses one stakeholder-defined social-ecological system (SES) solution in the context of southern Idaho, one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S.: agricultural protection zoning. This project demonstrates a method for incorporating an Agriculture Protection Zone (APZ) within a suite of scenarios showing land protection opportunities across a range of future conditions and challenges. The results, by way of a Geodesign framework, entail suitability analyses through a series of weighted raster overlays to analyze scenario-based solutions. The suite of scenario solutions was compared to demonstrate effective proportions of the APZ. The analysis of the results, as a solution gradient, aim to inform policy makers, planners, and developers about the efficiencies of various APZ delineations as well as a methodology to demonstrate the impact of solutions based on assumptions of stakeholder-informed future scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Cronan & E. Jamie Trammell & Andrew Kliskey, 2023. "From Uncertainties to Solutions: A Scenario-Based Framework for an Agriculture Protection Zone in Magic Valley Idaho," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:4:p:862-:d:1120650
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Cronan & E. Jamie Trammell & Andrew (Anaru) Kliskey, 2022. "Images to Evoke Decision-Making: Building Compelling Representations for Stakeholder-Driven Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Daniel Cronan & E. Jamie Trammell & Andrew (Anaru) Kliskey & Paula Williams & Lilian Alessa, 2022. "Socio-Ecological Futures: Embedded Solutions for Stakeholder-Driven Alternative Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Fontana, Veronika & Radtke, Anna & Bossi Fedrigotti, Valérie & Tappeiner, Ulrike & Tasser, Erich & Zerbe, Stefan & Buchholz, Thomas, 2013. "Comparing land-use alternatives: Using the ecosystem services concept to define a multi-criteria decision analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 128-136.
    4. Richard J. Vyn, 2012. "Examining for Evidence of the Leapfrog Effect in the Context of Strict Agricultural Zoning," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 88(3), pages 457-477.
    5. Uri Avin & Robert Goodspeed, 2020. "Using Exploratory Scenarios in Planning Practice," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 86(4), pages 403-416, October.
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