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Cap Rates as a Function of Real Economic Growth

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  • Matt Larriva

    (FCP, 4445 Willard Ave, Ste 900, Chevy Chase, MD 20815, USA)

Abstract

This study investigates the interactive effect of changes in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on US multifamily cap rates. The data from the US and 20 of its metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) was used from 2000 to 2021. The accompanying cap rate data is sourced to Green Street. A binary logistic regression model was specified by reducing the interaction between first-differenced GDP and CPI to a single binary variable and reducing the first-differenced cap rate series to a binary variable. Cap rate changes are forecasted, and the model is evaluated using standard goodness of fit methods, a confusion matrix, and a comparison to a buy-and-hold strategy. Overall, this study provides new evidence to explain and simplify the impact of inflation and economic growth on cap rates. The results show that the method of forecasting cap rates is highly robust in locations where growth is consistent with the national average (established cities), while it is less robust in fast-growing markets. It can be inferred that, in established cities and the US as a whole, cap rate growth can be modeled as a function of only the underlying GDP growth relative to CPI growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Matt Larriva, 2022. "Cap Rates as a Function of Real Economic Growth," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:8:p:324-:d:869636
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jesse M. Abraham & Patric H. Hendershott, 1994. "Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 4774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273, September.
    3. Jun Li & Xiaoli Liang, 2020. "Beyond the Cap Rate: Valuation of Multifamily Properties," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 99-110, February.
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