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Decomposing US Money Supply Changes since the Financial Crisis

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  • Richard Robinson

    (School of Business, E336 Thompson Hall, SUNY at Fredonia, Fredonia, NY, 14067, USA)

  • Marwan El Nasser

    (School of Business, E336 Thompson Hall, SUNY at Fredonia, Fredonia, NY, 14067, USA)

Abstract

In response to the financial crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve radically increased the monetary base. Banks responded by increasing excess reserves rather than increasing bank loans, and the public responded with a substantial flight to liquidity in the form of currency and demand deposits. As a result, the money-supply multipliers substantially decreased, so that the actual money supply measures grew more moderately than the base. The sustained multiplier-collapse spawned reexamination of monetary versus fiscal theories of price-level determination. This paper, however, presents decompositions of the money-multiplier collapse into changes in the currency-to-deposit ratios, and changes in the reserve-to-deposit ratio. By doing so, possible near-term increases in the multipliers are simulated so that the possibility of either full or partial restoration to their pre-crisis levels is assessed. Policy possibilities for controlling the money supply over various horizons follow. This analysis illustrates the Federal Reserve’s exit dilemma that results from its financial-crisis policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Robinson & Marwan El Nasser, 2013. "Decomposing US Money Supply Changes since the Financial Crisis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:1:y:2013:i:2:p:32-44:d:26615
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, May.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    5. Alan S. Blinder, 2010. "Quantitative easing: entrance and exit strategies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 465-480.
    6. Richard G. Anderson & Charles S. Gascon & Yang Liu, 2010. "Doubling your monetary base and surviving: some international experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 481-506.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bozena Chovancova & Jaroslav Hudcovsky, 2016. "Quantitative Easing in Europe and its Impact on the Stock Market," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 12(3), pages 155-165.
    2. Juniper, James & Nadolny, Andrew & Pantelopoulos, George & Watts, Martin, 2021. "Orthodox macroeconomic textbooks: A critical evaluation using institutional practice as a benchmark," International Review of Economics Education, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

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