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Dynamical Analysis of Universal Masking on the Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Brandon Kaiheng Tay

    (Science, Mathematics and Technology, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 8 Somapah Road, Singapore 487372, Singapore
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Carvalho Andrea Roby

    (Science, Mathematics and Technology, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 8 Somapah Road, Singapore 487372, Singapore
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jodi Wenjiang Wu

    (Science, Mathematics and Technology, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 8 Somapah Road, Singapore 487372, Singapore
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Da Yang Tan

    (Science, Mathematics and Technology, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 8 Somapah Road, Singapore 487372, Singapore)

Abstract

We investigate the impact of the delay in compulsory mask wearing on the spread of COVID-19 in the community, set in the Singapore context. By using modified SEIR-based compartmental models, we focus on macroscopic population-level analysis of the relationships between the delay in compulsory mask wearing and the maximum infection, through a series of scenario-based analysis. Our analysis suggests that collective masking can meaningfully reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the community, but only if implemented within a critical time window of approximately before 80–100 days delay after the first infection is detected, coupled with strict enforcement to ensure compliance throughout the duration. We also identify a delay threshold of about 100 days that results in masking enforcement having little significant impact on the Maximum Infected Values. The results therefore highlight the necessity for rapid implementation of compulsory mask wearing to curb the spread of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandon Kaiheng Tay & Carvalho Andrea Roby & Jodi Wenjiang Wu & Da Yang Tan, 2021. "Dynamical Analysis of Universal Masking on the Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-11, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:17:p:9027-:d:623047
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124130, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    2. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124587, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
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    Cited by:

    1. Hermógenes Fernández-Marín & Gaspar Bruner-Montero & Ana Portugal-Loayza & Virginia Miranda & Alcibiades Elias Villarreal Dominguez & Eduardo Ortega-Barría & Virginia Núñez-Samudio & Iván Landires & L, 2021. "Dynamics of Mask Use as a Prevention Strategy against SARS-CoV-2 in Panama," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Sara Cabanillas-Barea & Jacobo Rodríguez-Sanz & Andoni Carrasco-Uribarren & Carlos López-de-Celis & Vanessa González-Rueda & Daniel Zegarra-Chávez & Simón Cedeño-Bermúdez & Albert Pérez-Bellmunt, 2021. "Effects of Using the Surgical Mask and FFP2 during the 6-Min Walking Test. A Randomized Controlled Trial," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-9, November.

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