IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/102944.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?

Author

Listed:
  • Cerqua, Augusto
  • Di Stefano, Roberta

Abstract

The first cluster of coronavirus cases in Europe was officially detected on 21st February 2020 in Northern Italy, even if recent evidence showed sporadic first cases in Europe at the beginning of the year. In this study we have tested the presence of coronavirus in Italy and, even more importantly, we have assessed whether the virus had already spread sooner than 21st February. We use a counterfactual approach and certified daily data on the number of deaths (deaths from any cause, not only related to coronavirus) at the municipality level. Our estimates confirm that coronavirus began spreading in Northern Italy at least a week before the beginning of February.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerqua, Augusto & Di Stefano, Roberta, 2020. "When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?," MPRA Paper 102944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:102944
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/102944/1/MPRA_paper_102944.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J R Elliott & Bowen Liu, 2020. "The Impact of the Wuhan Covid-19 Lockdown on Air Pollution and Health: A Machine Learning and Augmented Synthetic Control Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 553-580, August.
    2. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124130, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    3. Franco Peracchi & Daniele Terlizzese, 2020. "Estimating the prevalence of the COVID-19 infection, with an application to Italy," EIEF Working Papers Series 2013, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised May 2020.
    4. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124587, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce COVID-19 Cases in Germany: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 13319, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    7. Andrea Ascani & Alessandra Faggian & Sandro Montresor, 2021. "The geography of COVID‐19 and the structure of local economies: The case of Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 407-441, March.
    8. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    9. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Ascani & Alessandra Faggian & Sandro Montresor, 2021. "The geography of COVID‐19 and the structure of local economies: The case of Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 407-441, March.
    2. G. Alleva & G. Arbia & P. D. Falorsi & V. Nardelli & A. Zuliani, 2023. "Optimal two-stage spatial sampling design for estimating critical parameters of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic: Efficiency versus feasibility," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(3), pages 983-999, September.
    3. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    4. Magdalena Kachniewska & Anna Para, 2023. "Feminine vs. Masculine: Expectations of Leadership Styles in Hotels during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-24, July.
    5. Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini, 2022. "Untimely Reopening? Increase in the Number of New COVID‐19 Cases After Reopening in One Brazilian State," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 675-693, August.
    6. Fabrizio Cedrone & Giuseppe Buomprisco & Mucci Nicola & Giuseppe La Torre & Hector Nieto & Roberto Perri & Vincenzo Montagna & Emilio Greco & Simone De Sio, 2022. "Alcohol Use during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Survey among Healthcare and Office Workers in Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-10, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy [Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    2. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Cheng, Hao-Sen, 2021. "The impact mechanism of the ETS on CO2 emissions from the service sector: Evidence from Beijing and Shanghai," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Esaka, Taro & Fujii, Takao, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Benjamin Born & Alexander M Dietrich & Gernot J Müller, 2021. "The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, April.
    5. Bonander, Carl & Ekman, Mats & Jakobsson, Niklas, 2022. "Vaccination nudges: A study of pre-booked COVID-19 vaccinations in Sweden," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    6. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce COVID-19 Cases in Germany: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 13319, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini, 2022. "Untimely Reopening? Increase in the Number of New COVID‐19 Cases After Reopening in One Brazilian State," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 675-693, August.
    8. Martin Huber & Henrika Langen, 2020. "Timing matters: the impact of response measures on COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates in Germany and Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-19, December.
    9. Cooper, Daniel & Garga, Vaishali & Luengo-Prado, María José & Tang, Jenny, 2023. "The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    10. Apel, Johannes & Rohde, Niklas & Marcus, Jan, 2023. "The effect of a nighttime curfew on the spread of COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Demidova, Olga, 2021. "Methods of spatial econometrics and evaluation of government programs effectiveness," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 64, pages 107-134.
    12. Omid Zamani & Craig Chibanda & Janine Pelikan, 2023. "Unraveling the effects of import bans on domestic poultry production: a case study of Senegal," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    13. Mónica Amador-Jiménez & Naomi Millner & Charles Palmer & R. Toby Pennington & Lorenzo Sileci, 2020. "The Unintended Impact of Colombia’s Covid-19 Lockdown on Forest Fires," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1081-1105, August.
    14. Zamani, Omid & Gunarathne, Anoma, 2022. "Could Genetic Improvement Policies Boost Milk Production in Senegal? A Synthetic Control Method," 62nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 7-9, 2022 329603, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    15. Duarte, Rosa & García-Riazuelo, Álvaro & Sáez, Luis Antonio & Sarasa, Cristina, 2022. "Economic and territorial integration of renewables in rural areas: Lessons from a long-term perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun & Eskelinen, Juha & Malo, Pekka, 2021. "Design Flaw of the Synthetic Control Method," MPRA Paper 106328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Florence Bouvet & Roy Bower & Jason C. Jones, 2022. "Currency Devaluation as a Source of Growth in Africa: A Synthetic Control Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 367-389, June.
    18. Hideki Shimada & Kenji Asano & Yu Nagai & Akito Ozawa, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Offshore Wind Power Deployment on Fishery: A Synthetic Control Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(3), pages 791-829, November.
    19. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & Ferran A. Mazaira-Font, 2020. "Ensuring Stability, Accuracy and Meaningfulness in Synthetic Control Methods: The Regularized SHAP-Distance Method," IREA Working Papers 202005, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2020.
    20. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; Europe; Counterfactual approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:102944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.