IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v16y2019i17p3146-d261922.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-Series Study of Associations between Rates of People Affected by Disasters and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Holly Ching Yu Lam

    (Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)

  • Andy Haines

    (Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK
    Centre for Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK)

  • Glenn McGregor

    (Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK)

  • Emily Ying Yang Chan

    (Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)

  • Shakoor Hajat

    (Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK
    Centre for Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK)

Abstract

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have far reaching consequences for public health globally. We explored whether global, regional and country-level rates of people affected by natural disasters (PAD) are linked to ENSO. Annual numbers of PAD between 1964–2017 recorded on the EM-DAT disaster database were combined with UN population data to create PAD rates. Time-series regression was used to assess de-trended associations between PAD and 2 ENSO indices: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and multivariate El Niño Index (MEI). Over 95% of PAD were caused by floods, droughts or storms, with over 75% of people affected by these three disasters residing in Asia. Globally, drought-related PAD rate increased sharply in El Niño years (versus neutral years). Flood events were the disaster type most strongly associated with El Niño regionally: in South Asia, flood-related PAD increased by 40.5% (95% CI 19.3% to 65.6%) for each boundary point increase in ONI ( p = 0.002). India was found to be the country with the largest increase in flood-related PAD rates following an El Niño event, with the Philippines experiencing the largest increase following La Niña. Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)-analyses showed consistent results. These findings can be used to inform disaster preparedness strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Holly Ching Yu Lam & Andy Haines & Glenn McGregor & Emily Ying Yang Chan & Shakoor Hajat, 2019. "Time-Series Study of Associations between Rates of People Affected by Disasters and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-16, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:17:p:3146-:d:261922
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/17/3146/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/17/3146/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emily Yang Ying Chan & Zhe Huang & Holly Ching Yu Lam & Carol Ka Po Wong & Qiang Zou, 2019. "Health Vulnerability Index for Disaster Risk Reduction: Application in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Kevin E. Trenberth & Aiguo Dai & Gerard van der Schrier & Philip D. Jones & Jonathan Barichivich & Keith R. Briffa & Justin Sheffield, 2014. "Global warming and changes in drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 17-22, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Linghui Guo & Yuanyuan Luo & Yao Li & Tianping Wang & Jiangbo Gao & Hebing Zhang & Youfeng Zou & Shaohong Wu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Daniel Cooley & Steven M. Smith, 2022. "Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions," NBER Chapters, in: American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change, pages 135-171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Muhammad Amin & Mobushir Riaz Khan & Sher Shah Hassan & Muhammad Imran & Muhammad Hanif & Irfan Ahmad Baig, 2023. "Determining satellite-based evapotranspiration product and identifying relationship with other observed data in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 23-39, January.
    4. Yuhong Shuai & Liming Yao, 2021. "Adjustable Robust Optimization for Multi-Period Water Allocation in Droughts Under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4043-4065, September.
    5. X. Zhang & Y. Yamaguchi, 2014. "Characterization and evaluation of MODIS-derived Drought Severity Index (DSI) for monitoring the 2009/2010 drought over southwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2129-2145, December.
    6. Jinsoo Hwang & Hyunjoon Kim, 2019. "Consequences of a green image of drone food delivery services: The moderating role of gender and age," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 872-884, July.
    7. Rui Zhang & Taotao Chen & Daocai Chi, 2020. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at Different Time Scales in Jilin Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Hong, Minki & Lee, Sang-Hyun & Lee, Seung-Jae & Choi, Jin-Yong, 2021. "Application of high-resolution meteorological data from NCAM-WRF to characterize agricultural drought in small-scale farmlands based on soil moisture deficit," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    9. Shan Jiang & Jian Zhou & Guojie Wang & Qigen Lin & Ziyan Chen & Yanjun Wang & Buda Su, 2022. "Cropland Exposed to Drought Is Overestimated without Considering the CO 2 Effect in the Arid Climatic Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, June.
    10. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.
    11. Zhang, Yuliang & Wu, Zhiyong & Singh, Vijay P. & Lin, Qingxia & Ning, Shaowei & Zhou, Yuliang & Jin, Juliang & Zhou, Rongxing & Ma, Qiang, 2023. "Agricultural drought characteristics in a typical plain region considering irrigation, crop growth, and water demand impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    12. Erickson, Adam & Nitschke, Craig & Coops, Nicholas & Cumming, Steven & Stenhouse, Gordon, 2015. "Past-century decline in forest regeneration potential across a latitudinal and elevational gradient in Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 94-102.
    13. Eva O. Arceo-Gómez & Danae Hernández-Cortés & Alejandro López-Feldman, 2020. "Droughts and rural households’ wellbeing: evidence from Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1197-1212, October.
    14. Zhang, Yu & Liu, Xiaohong & Jiao, Wenzhe & Zhao, Liangju & Zeng, Xiaomin & Xing, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Lingnan & Hong, Yixue & Lu, Qiangqiang, 2022. "A new multi-variable integrated framework for identifying flash drought in the Loess Plateau and Qinling Mountains regions of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    15. Weili Duan & Bin He & Daniel Nover & Jingli Fan & Guishan Yang & Wen Chen & Huifang Meng & Chuanming Liu, 2016. "Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 401-413, May.
    16. Hossein Mikhak & Mehdi Rahimian & Saeed Gholamrezai, 2022. "Implications of changing cropping pattern to low water demand plants due to climate change: evidence from Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 9833-9850, August.
    17. Zheng Zeng & Wei-Ge Luo & Fa-Cheng Yi & Feng-Yu Huang & Cheng-Xia Wang & Yi-Ping Zhang & Qiang-Qiang Cheng & Zhe Wang, 2021. "Horizontal Distribution of Cadmium in Urban Constructed Wetlands: A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, May.
    18. Huang, Bihong & Punzi, Maria Teresa & Wu, Yu, 2021. "Do banks price environmental transition risks? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Zhang, Junwei & Xiang, Lingxiao & Zhu, Chenxi & Li, Wuqiang & Jing, Dan & Zhang, Lili & Liu, Yong & Li, Tianlai & Li, Jianming, 2023. "Evaluating the irrigation schedules of greenhouse tomato by simulating soil water balance under drip irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    20. Moonyoung Lee & Heejin An & Jiwan Lee & Myoung-Jin Um & Younghun Jung & Kewtae Kim & Kichul Jung & Seongjoon Kim & Daeryong Park, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variability of Regional Rainfall Frequencies in South Korea for Different Periods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-19, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:17:p:3146-:d:261922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.