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Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at Different Time Scales in Jilin Province, China

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  • Rui Zhang

    (College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
    Jilin Agricultural Science and Technology University, Jilin 132101, China)

  • Taotao Chen

    (College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
    College of Agronomy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
    Liaoning Biochar Engineering & Technology Research Center, Shenyang 110866, China)

  • Daocai Chi

    (College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China)

Abstract

The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been widely applied, due to its multi-scalar features and the ability to identify different drought types. However, its sensitivity to climatic variables still remains unclear, especially at different time scales. Therefore, this study investigates the sensitivity of SPEI to average temperature ( T mean ), diurnal temperature ranges ( T delta ), relative humidity ( RH ), solar radiation ( Rs ), wind speed ( U 2 ), geothermal flux ( G ), and precipitation ( P ) from 1957 to 2017 using the extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test at different time scales in Jilin Province, China. Jilin Province experienced a significant rise in T mean , and a sharp decrease in T delta , Rs , and U 2 . P is undoubtedly the most influential factor to the SPEI among the meteorological variables, which explained 59.9%–97.9% of the total variability, especially during the main crop growing season (from May to September). While T mean , RH , or U 2 observably affect the SPEI and cannot be neglected during the nongrowing season. In terms of spatial distribution, the SPEI was mainly affected by P in the eastern region, while it was also influenced by T mean , RH , and U 2 as well in the western region. The sensitivity of the SPEI differs in time scales: P > T mean > RH > U 2 > Rs > G > T delta (1 to 6 month), P > U 2 > RH ≈ T mean > G > Rs > T delta (7 to 18 month), and P > U 2 > G > T mean > RH > Rs > T delta (more than 24 month time scale), respectively. The results have the potential to provide a reference for agricultural production and management in Jilin Province, China.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Zhang & Taotao Chen & Daocai Chi, 2020. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at Different Time Scales in Jilin Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:5:p:1713-:d:324898
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wen Wang & Ye Zhu & Rengui Xu & Jintao Liu, 2015. "Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2437-2451, February.
    2. Saltelli, Andrea & Ratto, Marco & Tarantola, Stefano & Campolongo, Francesca, 2006. "Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1109-1125.
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    4. Kevin E. Trenberth & Aiguo Dai & Gerard van der Schrier & Philip D. Jones & Jonathan Barichivich & Keith R. Briffa & Justin Sheffield, 2014. "Global warming and changes in drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 17-22, January.
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    2. Yang Wang & Shuai Zhang & Xueer Chang, 2020. "Evapotranspiration Estimation Based on Remote Sensing and the SEBAL Model in the Bosten Lake Basin of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.

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