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Optimal Operation of Combined Heat and Power System Based on Forecasted Energy Prices in Real-Time Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chenghong Gu

    (Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK)

  • Da Xie

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Junbo Sun

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Xitian Wang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Qian Ai

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

Abstract

This paper develops a discrete operation optimization model for combined heat and powers (CHPs) in deregulated energy markets to maximize owners’ profits, where energy price forecasting is included. First, a single input and multi-output (SIMO) model for typical CHPs is established, considering the varying ratio between heat and electricity outputs at different loading levels. Then, the energy prices are forecasted with a gray forecasting model and revised in real-time based on the actual prices by using the least squares method. At last, a discrete optimization model and corresponding dynamic programming algorithm are developed to design the optimal operation strategies for CHPs in real-time. Based on the forecasted prices, the potential operating strategy which may produce the maximum profits is pre-developed. Dynamic modification is then conducted to adjust the pre-developed operating strategy after the actual prices are known. The proposed method is implemented on a 1 MW CHP on a typical day. Results show the optimized profits comply well with those derived from real-time prices after considering dynamic modification process.

Suggested Citation

  • Chenghong Gu & Da Xie & Junbo Sun & Xitian Wang & Qian Ai, 2015. "Optimal Operation of Combined Heat and Power System Based on Forecasted Energy Prices in Real-Time Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:12:p:12427-14345:d:60857
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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