IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i6p1480-d1360045.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global Residual Demand Analysis in a Deep Variable Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario for Replacing Coal: A Study of 42 Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jai-Oan Cho

    (Department of Nuclear & Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST), 291, Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea)

  • Jeong Ik Lee

    (Department of Nuclear & Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST), 291, Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34141, Republic of Korea)

  • Staffan Qvist

    (Qvist Consulting Limited, London UB1 3EP, UK)

Abstract

This study analyzes the residual demand curves of 42 countries under five scenarios with varying variable renewable energy (VRE) levels to observe how replacing coal with VRE can alter the demand curve. Using 2018 demand data, the residual demand was calculated and analyzed by subtracting the VRE supply curve from the demand curve. The operational requirements for low-carbon load-following sources amid high VRE penetration are examined. Key findings indicate that substantial peak residual demand persists even with 70% energy from VREs, emphasizing the need for significant load-following resources. Transitioning to a 70% VRE scenario could reduce CO 2 emissions by approximately 16.799 billion tons, advancing towards carbon neutrality. However, this benefit depends on maintaining grid stability, highlighting the importance of adequate load-following plants to manage VRE intermittency. Countries like Malaysia, South Korea, Tunisia, the UK, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Libya face higher load-following demands due to specific renewable energy contexts. This study reveals varying renewable energy environments across countries, suggesting that a universal strategy for carbon neutrality and replacing coal may not be feasible. Each nation must develop its own approach to emission reduction, considering its unique conditions. This research emphasizes the urgent need for developing cost-effective, flexible, low-carbon load-following sources to enhance decarbonization potential globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Jai-Oan Cho & Jeong Ik Lee & Staffan Qvist, 2024. "Global Residual Demand Analysis in a Deep Variable Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario for Replacing Coal: A Study of 42 Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:6:p:1480-:d:1360045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/6/1480/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/6/1480/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Derouiche, Imen & Hassan, Majdi & Liu, Pei-Zhi, 2024. "Do creditors price climate transition risks? A natural experiment based on China's carbon emission trading scheme," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 138-155.
    2. Guerra, K. & Haro, P. & Gutiérrez, R.E. & Gómez-Barea, A., 2022. "Facing the high share of variable renewable energy in the power system: Flexibility and stability requirements," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    3. Mathilde Fajardy & David Reiner, 2020. "An overview of the electrification of residential and commercial heating and cooling and prospects for decarbonisation," Working Papers EPGR2037, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    4. George E. Halkos & Eleni-Christina Gkampoura, 2020. "Reviewing Usage, Potentials, and Limitations of Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Bhattacharya, Mita & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Ozturk, Ilhan & Bhattacharya, Sankar, 2016. "The effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from top 38 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 733-741.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Villanthenkodath, Muhammed Ashiq & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2021. "Does economic growth respond to electricity consumption asymmetrically in Bangladesh? The implication for environmental sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    3. Hosein Mohammadi & Sayed Saghaian & Bahareh Zandi Dareh Gharibi, 2023. "Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Its Impact on Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, February.
    4. Panagiotis Trivellas & Georgios Malindretos & Panagiotis Reklitis, 2020. "Implications of Green Logistics Management on Sustainable Business and Supply Chain Performance: Evidence from a Survey in the Greek Agri-Food Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-29, December.
    5. Okumus, Fevzi & Kocak, Emrah, 2023. "Tourism and economic output: Do asymmetries matter?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. Wei Wang & Kehui Wei & Oleksandr Kubatko & Vladyslav Piven & Yulija Chortok & Oleksandr Derykolenko, 2023. "Economic Growth and Sustainable Transition: Investigating Classical and Novel Factors in Developed Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-15, August.
    7. Gerard Bikorimana & Charles Rutikanga & Didier Mwizerwa, 2020. "Linking energy consumption with economic growth: Rwanda as a case study," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2020(2), pages 181-200.
    8. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Olabode, Joshua K. & Rafi, Syed K., 2021. "Renewable energy consumption, carbon emissions and human development: Empirical comparison of the trajectories of world regions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1836-1848.
    9. Saidi Kais & Ben Mbarek Mounir, 2017. "Causal interactions between environmental degradation, renewable energy, nuclear energy and real GDP: a dynamic panel data approach," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 51-67, March.
    10. Juangsa, Firman Bagja & Prananto, Lukman Adi & Mufrodi, Zahrul & Budiman, Arief & Oda, Takuya & Aziz, Muhammad, 2018. "Highly energy-efficient combination of dehydrogenation of methylcyclohexane and hydrogen-based power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 31-38.
    11. Riza Radmehr & Samira Shayanmehr & Ernest Baba Ali & Elvis Kwame Ofori & Elżbieta Jasińska & Michał Jasiński, 2022. "Exploring the Nexus of Renewable Energy, Ecological Footprint, and Economic Growth through Globalization and Human Capital in G7 Economics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
    12. Genel, Salih & Durak, Halil & Durak, Emre Demirer & Güneş, Hasret & Genel, Yaşar, 2023. "Hydrothermal liquefaction of biomass with molybdenum, aluminum, cobalt metal powder catalysts and evaluation of wastewater by fungus cultivation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 20-32.
    13. Łukasz Nazarko & Eigirdas Žemaitis & Łukasz Krzysztof Wróblewski & Karel Šuhajda & Magdalena Zajączkowska, 2022. "The Impact of Energy Development of the European Union Euro Area Countries on CO 2 Emissions Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-12, February.
    14. Nagmi Moftah Aimer, 2020. "Renewable energy consumption, financial development and economic growth: Evidence from panel data for the Middle East and North African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2058-2072.
    15. Iorember, Paul Terhemba & Usman, Ojonugwa & Jelilov, Gylych, 2019. "Asymmetric Effects of Renewable Energy Consumption, Trade Openness and Economic Growth on Environmental Quality in Nigeria and South Africa," MPRA Paper 96333, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2019.
    16. Jeffrey Kouton, 2021. "The impact of renewable energy consumption on inclusive growth: panel data analysis in 44 African countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 145-170, February.
    17. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke, 2023. "New developments in the disciplines of environmental and resource economics," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 513-522.
    18. Tongyu Meng & Jamie Newth & Christine Woods, 2022. "Ethical Sensemaking in Impact Investing: Reasons and Motives in the Chinese Renewable Energy Sector," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 179(4), pages 1091-1117, September.
    19. Khribich, Abir & Kacem, Rami H. & Dakhlaoui, Ahlem, 2021. "Causality nexus of renewable energy consumption and social development: Evidence from high-income countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 14-22.
    20. Satria Tirtayasa & A. Akrim & Ade Gunawan & Emilda Sulasmi & Hastin Umi Anisah, 2021. "Significance of Economic Activities in Environmental Protection: Evidence from a Panel of 4-ASEAN Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 420-426.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:6:p:1480-:d:1360045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.