IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i22p7618-d1282014.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Solar Generation in Spain Using eXtreme Gradient Boosting: A Machine Learning Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Candra Saigustia

    (Department of Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Lublin University of Technology, Nadbystrzycka St. 38D, 20-618 Lublin, Poland)

  • Paweł Pijarski

    (Department of Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Lublin University of Technology, Nadbystrzycka St. 38D, 20-618 Lublin, Poland)

Abstract

The rapid expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation has established its pivotal role in the shift toward sustainable energy systems. This study conducts an in-depth analysis of solar generation data from 2015 to 2018 in Spain, with a specific emphasis on temporal patterns, excluding weather data. Employing the powerful eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm for modeling and forecasting, our research underscores its exceptional efficacy in capturing solar generation trends, as evidenced by a remarkable root mean squared error (RMSE) of 11.042, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.621, an R-squared (R²) of 0.999, and a minimal mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.046. These insights hold substantial implications for grid management, energy planning, and policy development, reaffirming solar energy’s promise as a dependable and sustainable contributor to the electrical power system’s evolution. This research contributes to the growing body of knowledge aimed at optimizing renewable energy integration and enhancing energy sustainability for future generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Candra Saigustia & Paweł Pijarski, 2023. "Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Solar Generation in Spain Using eXtreme Gradient Boosting: A Machine Learning Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-14, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:22:p:7618-:d:1282014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/22/7618/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/22/7618/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    2. Yin, Linfei & Cao, Xinghui & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Weighted fully-connected regression networks for one-day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    3. Abdul Rauf Bhatti & Ahmed Bilal Awan & Walied Alharbi & Zainal Salam & Abdullah S. Bin Humayd & Praveen R. P. & Kankar Bhattacharya, 2021. "An Improved Approach to Enhance Training Performance of ANN and the Prediction of PV Power for Any Time-Span without the Presence of Real-Time Weather Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Amrouche, Badia & Le Pivert, Xavier, 2014. "Artificial neural network based daily local forecasting for global solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 333-341.
    5. Li, Huashan & Ma, Weibin & Wang, Xianlong & Lian, Yongwang, 2011. "Estimating monthly average daily diffuse solar radiation with multiple predictors: A case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1944-1948.
    6. Nassar, Nedal T. & Wilburn, David R. & Goonan, Thomas G., 2016. "Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1209-1226.
    7. Fadare, D.A., 2009. "Modelling of solar energy potential in Nigeria using an artificial neural network model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(9), pages 1410-1422, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jose Manuel Barrera & Alejandro Reina & Alejandro Maté & Juan Carlos Trujillo, 2020. "Solar Energy Prediction Model Based on Artificial Neural Networks and Open Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Yadav, Amit Kumar & Malik, Hasmat & Chandel, S.S., 2015. "Application of rapid miner in ANN based prediction of solar radiation for assessment of solar energy resource potential of 76 sites in Northwestern India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1093-1106.
    3. Rohani, Abbas & Taki, Morteza & Abdollahpour, Masoumeh, 2018. "A novel soft computing model (Gaussian process regression with K-fold cross validation) for daily and monthly solar radiation forecasting (Part: I)," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 411-422.
    4. Khalil, Samy A. & Shaffie, A.M., 2016. "Evaluation of transposition models of solar irradiance over Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 105-119.
    5. Hassan, Gasser E. & Youssef, M. Elsayed & Mohamed, Zahraa E. & Ali, Mohamed A. & Hanafy, Ahmed A., 2016. "New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 437-450.
    6. Elham Alzain & Shaha Al-Otaibi & Theyazn H. H. Aldhyani & Ali Saleh Alshebami & Mohammed Amin Almaiah & Mukti E. Jadhav, 2023. "Revolutionizing Solar Power Production with Artificial Intelligence: A Sustainable Predictive Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
    7. Liu, Luyao & Zhao, Yi & Chang, Dongliang & Xie, Jiyang & Ma, Zhanyu & Sun, Qie & Yin, Hongyi & Wennersten, Ronald, 2018. "Prediction of short-term PV power output and uncertainty analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 700-711.
    8. Mohamed A. Ali & Ashraf Elsayed & Islam Elkabani & Mohammad Akrami & M. Elsayed Youssef & Gasser E. Hassan, 2023. "Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks for the Accurate Prediction of Global Solar Radiation: A Performance Comparison with Conventional Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-30, August.
    9. Xu, Fang Yuan & Tang, Rui Xin & Xu, Si Bin & Fan, Yi Liang & Zhou, Ya & Zhang, Hao Tian, 2021. "Neural network-based photovoltaic generation capacity prediction system with benefit-oriented modification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    10. von Grabe, Jörn, 2016. "Potential of artificial neural networks to predict thermal sensation votes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 412-424.
    11. Khatib, Tamer & Mohamed, Azah & Sopian, K., 2012. "A review of solar energy modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2864-2869.
    12. Moreira, M.O. & Balestrassi, P.P. & Paiva, A.P. & Ribeiro, P.F. & Bonatto, B.D., 2021. "Design of experiments using artificial neural network ensemble for photovoltaic generation forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Khalil, Samy A. & Shaffie, A.M., 2013. "A comparative study of total, direct and diffuse solar irradiance by using different models on horizontal and inclined surfaces for Cairo, Egypt," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 853-863.
    14. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    15. Paweł Pijarski & Adrian Belowski, 2024. "Application of Methods Based on Artificial Intelligence and Optimisation in Power Engineering—Introduction to the Special Issue," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-42, January.
    16. Hussain, Sajid & Al-Alili, Ali, 2016. "A new approach for model validation in solar radiation using wavelet, phase and frequency coherence analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 639-649.
    17. Gao, Bixuan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Shi, Junsheng & Tai, Yonghang & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Hourly forecasting of solar irradiance based on CEEMDAN and multi-strategy CNN-LSTM neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1665-1683.
    18. Ren, Kaipeng & Tang, Xu & Wang, Peng & Willerström, Jakob & Höök, Mikael, 2021. "Bridging energy and metal sustainability: Insights from China’s wind power development up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    19. Flores, Juan J. & Graff, Mario & Rodriguez, Hector, 2012. "Evolutive design of ARMA and ANN models for time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 225-230.
    20. Yu, Kunjie & Liang, J.J. & Qu, B.Y. & Cheng, Zhiping & Wang, Heshan, 2018. "Multiple learning backtracking search algorithm for estimating parameters of photovoltaic models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 408-422.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:22:p:7618-:d:1282014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.