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From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Perez

    (ASRC, University at Albany, 151 Fuller Rd., Albany, NY 12203, USA)

  • Marc Perez

    (Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA)

  • James Schlemmer

    (ASRC, University at Albany, 151 Fuller Rd., Albany, NY 12203, USA)

  • John Dise

    (Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA)

  • Thomas E. Hoff

    (Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA)

  • Agata Swierc

    (Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA)

  • Patrick Keelin

    (Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA)

  • Marco Pierro

    (Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome, Tor Vergata, via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy)

  • Cristina Cornaro

    (Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome, Tor Vergata, via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy)

Abstract

We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Perez & Marc Perez & James Schlemmer & John Dise & Thomas E. Hoff & Agata Swierc & Patrick Keelin & Marco Pierro & Cristina Cornaro, 2020. "From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-33, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:17:p:4489-:d:406842
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierro, Marco & Perez, Richard & Perez, Marc & Moser, David & Cornaro, Cristina, 2020. "Italian protocol for massive solar integration: Imbalance mitigation strategies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 725-739.
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    Cited by:

    1. Castillejo-Cuberos, A. & Cardemil, J.M. & Escobar, R., 2023. "Techno-economic assessment of photovoltaic plants considering high temporal resolution and non-linear dynamics of battery storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    2. Hoseinzadeh, Siamak & Astiaso Garcia, Davide & Huang, Lizhen, 2023. "Grid-connected renewable energy systems flexibility in Norway islands’ Decarbonization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

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