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Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation

Author

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  • Rana Muhammad Adnan

    (College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Zhongmin Liang

    (College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Xiaohui Yuan

    (School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Ozgur Kisi

    (Faculty of Natural Sciences and Engineering, Ilia State University, Tbilisi 0162, Georgia)

  • Muhammad Akhlaq

    (Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi 46300, Pakistan)

  • Binquan Li

    (College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract

Accurate predictions of wind speed and wind energy are essential in renewable energy planning and management. This study was carried out to test the accuracy of two different neuro fuzzy techniques (neuro fuzzy system with grid partition (NF-GP) and neuro fuzzy system with substractive clustering (NF-SC)), and two heuristic regression methods (least square support vector regression (LSSVR) and M5 regression tree (M5RT)) in the prediction of hourly wind speed and wind power using a cross-validation method. Fourfold cross-validation was employed by dividing the data into four equal subsets. LSSVR’s performance was superior to that of the M5RT, NF-SC, and NF-GP models for all datasets in wind speed prediction. The overall average root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of the M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC models decreased by 11.71%, 1.68%, and 2.94%, respectively, using the LSSVR model. The applicability of the four different models was also investigated in the prediction of one-hour-ahead wind power. The results showed that NF-GP’s performance was superior to that of LSSVR, NF-SC, and M5RT. The overall average RMSEs of LSSVR, NF-SC, and M5RT decreased by 5.52%, 1.30%, and 15.6%, respectively, using NF-GP.

Suggested Citation

  • Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:2:p:329-:d:199540
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    Keywords

    wind speed; wind power; forecasting; least square support vector regression; M5 regression tree; neuro-fuzzy system; Sotavento Galicia wind farm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M5 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics

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