IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v7y2019i2p30-d219442.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing Regional Economic Performance in the Southern Thailand Special Economic Zone Using a Vine-COPAR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Arisara Romyen

    (Faculty of Economics, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
    Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand)

  • Jianxu Liu

    (Faculty of Economics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250000, China
    Puey Ungphakorn Center of Excellence in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand)

  • Songsak Sriboonchitta

    (Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand
    Puey Ungphakorn Center of Excellence in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai 50200, Thailand)

  • Parinya Cherdchom

    (Faculty of Economics, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand)

  • Paratta Prommee

    (Faculty of Economics, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand)

Abstract

Special economic zones (SEZ) can play an integral role in enhancing both regional and national economic growth. To explore the relationship between regional growth and the presence of an SEZ in Songkhla province, Thailand, the CD Vine–Copula AutoRegressive (CD-Vine COPAR) models were constructed using annual datasets of Songkhla’s economic performance from 1995 to 2016. The findings indicate that the D Vine-COPAR model produced better fitting predictions for the manufacturing sector, while the C Vine-COPAR models better fit for the agriculture and service sectors. A five-year forecast (2017–2021) was also created. For Vine-COPAR-based Granger causality, the Gross Provincial Production, Foreign Direct Investment and Border Trade are evidently important contributors to regional economic development. Consequently, the government should adopt comprehensive strategies to ensure comparative advantages for operating in the region based on favorable local factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Arisara Romyen & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta & Parinya Cherdchom & Paratta Prommee, 2019. "Assessing Regional Economic Performance in the Southern Thailand Special Economic Zone Using a Vine-COPAR Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:2:p:30-:d:219442
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/7/2/30/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/7/2/30/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Pecican, Eugen St., 2010. "Forecasting Based On Open Var Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 59-69, March.
    4. Chi-Keung Lau, 2010. "Convergence Across the United States: Evidence from Panel ESTAR Unit Root Test," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 52-64, February.
    5. Brechmann, Eike Christian & Schepsmeier, Ulf, 2013. "Modeling Dependence with C- and D-Vine Copulas: The R Package CDVine," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 52(i03).
    6. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    7. repec:kap:iaecre:v:16:y:2010:i:1:p:52-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Eike Christian Brechmann & Claudia Czado, 2015. "COPAR—multivariate time series modeling using the copula autoregressive model," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 495-514, July.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lanzhuang Xu & Hu Xue & Qianrong Wu, 2022. "The Impact of Development Zones on Economic Growth in Less Developed Regions: Evidence from Guangxi, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Globalization Institute Working Papers 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Mushtaq Ahmad Malik & Tariq Masood, 2022. "Dynamics of Output Growth and Convergence in the Middle East and North African Countries: Heterogeneous Panel ARDL Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(2), pages 1444-1469, June.
    3. Ramazan Sari & Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Income and Education in Turkey: A Multivariate Analysis," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 181-196.
    4. Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2003. "Trade liberalization and endogenous growth of manufacturing industries in Bangladesh: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 305-314.
    5. Bee Wah Tan & Chor Foon Tang, 2016. "Examining the Causal Linkages among Domestic Investment, FDI, Trade, Interest Rate and Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 214-220.
    6. Jamel Jouini, 2016. "Economic growth and savings in Saudi Arabia: empirical evidence from cointegration and causality analysis," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 478-495, October.
    7. Banu Demirhan, 2016. "Financial Development and Investment Amount Nexus: A Case Study of Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(3), pages 127-134, March.
    8. Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin & Nor Aznin Abu Bakar & Muhammad Haseeb, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Exports between Malaysia and TPP Member Countries: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration (FMOLS) Model," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(6), pages 238-238, December.
    9. Khobai Hlalefang & Hamman Nicolene & Mkhombo Thando & Mhaka Simba & Mavikela Nomahlubi & Phiri Andrew, 2018. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in South Africa: A Re-Examination Using Quantile Regression Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(3), pages 33-55, December.
    10. de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.
    11. Rabindra Bhandari & Dharmendra Dhakal & Gyan Pradhan & Kamal P. Upadhyaya, 2007. "Determinants of Private Saving in South Asia," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 8(2), pages 205-217, December.
    12. Utku Utkulu & Durmus Özdemir, 2005. "Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 245-266, September.
    13. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Why is South Africa Still a Developing Country?," MPRA Paper 80763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Renelt, David, 1991. "Economic growth : a review of the theoretical and empirical literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 678, The World Bank.
    15. Mohammad Sharif Karimi & Elham Heshmati Daiari, 2018. "Does Institutions Matter for Economic Development? Evidence for ASEAN Selected Countries," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 1-20, Winter.
    16. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    17. Ghazi Al-Assaf & Bashier Al-Abdulrazag, 2015. "The Validity of Export-Led Growth Hypothesis for Jordan: A Bounds Testing Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 199-211.
    18. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ali, Shah & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "The determinants of economic growth: the Malaysian case," MPRA Paper 107859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kwamie Dunbar, 2009. "Stochastic Business Cycle Volatilities, Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth: Lessons from the Global Credit Market Crisis," Working papers 2009-36, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:2:p:30-:d:219442. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.