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Forecasting Based On Open Var Model

Author

Listed:
  • Pecican, Eugen St.

    (Department of Statistics and Econometrics, The Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

Abstract

Considering as a starting point certain advantages and limits of the VAR model, we propose an opening to include some approaches suggested particularly by economic theory, such as economic policy role and that concerning corrections applied to restore an equilibrium state or a forecast error. In order to improve the forecasting quality we introduced in the VAR model certain variables that express previous approaches. The open VAR model was applied to short-time prognoses regarding the main prices in economy (consumer price index, exchange rate, monthly wage, interest rate).

Suggested Citation

  • Pecican, Eugen St., 2010. "Forecasting Based On Open Var Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 59-69, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:1:p:59-69
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lidiema, Caspah, 2018. "Intra-market linkages in the financial sector and their effects on financial inclusion," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 28, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    2. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Min Du, 2018. "Integration of Financial Markets in Post Global Financial Crises and Implications for British Financial Sector: Analysis Based on A Panel VAR Model," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 363-388, June.
    3. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Alaa M. Soliman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Operational aspect of the policy coordination for financial stability: role of Jeffreys–Lindley’s paradox in operations research," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 306(1), pages 57-81, November.
    4. Dedu, Vasile & Stoica, Tiberiu, 2014. "The Impact of Monetaru Policy on the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 71-86, June.
    5. Arisara Romyen & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta & Parinya Cherdchom & Paratta Prommee, 2019. "Assessing Regional Economic Performance in the Southern Thailand Special Economic Zone Using a Vine-COPAR Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, April.
    6. Xiao Xuan & Khalid Khan & Chi-Wei Su & Adnan Khurshid, 2021. "Will COVID-19 Threaten the Survival of the Airline Industry?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    interdependence; autoregressive; simultaneous equations model; structural form; reduce form; lagged variables; error correction; test; ex-post forecast; system; intercept parameter; qualitative variable;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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