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The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after ‘Brexit’ on the State Pension System

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  • Angus Armstrong

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London SW1P 3 HE, UK)

  • Justin Van de Ven

    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London SW1P 3 HE, UK)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of changes in migration flows—in particular, those resulting from possible migration policy changes after a UK exit (‘Brexit’) from the European Union (EU)—on the finances of the UK state pension system. We find that the aggregate effects of considered shocks to immigration associated with Brexit on the funding of UK state pensions are dwarfed by associated uncertainties, and by coincident cost increases due to population aging and (domestic) pension’s policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Angus Armstrong & Justin Van de Ven, 2016. "The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after ‘Brexit’ on the State Pension System," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:4:y:2016:i:4:p:23-:d:81308
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Creedy, John & van de Ven, Justin, 2000. "Retirement Incomes: Private Savings versus Social Transfers," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(5), pages 539-551, September.
    2. John Creedy & Justin Van De Ven, 2000. "Retirement Incomes: Private Savings versus Social Transfers," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(5), pages 539-551, September.
    3. Justin Van de Ven, 2016. "Parameterising the LINDA microsimulation model of benefit unit savings and labour supply," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 464, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Igor Fedotenkov, 2014. "Pension Reform, Factor Mobility and Trade with Country-Specific Goods," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 247-262, September.
    5. Justin van de Ven, 2016. "LINDA: A dynamic microsimulation model for analysing policy effects on the evolving population cross-section," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 459, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    6. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini, 2014. "The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(580), pages 593-643, November.
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    8. Katerina Lisenkova & Miguel Sanchez-Martinez, 2016. "The long-term macroeconomic effects of lower migration to the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 460, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    9. Breyer, Friedrich & Kolmar, Martin, 2002. "Are national pension systems efficient if labor is (im)perfectly mobile?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 347-374, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. van de Ven, Justin, 2017. "SIDD: An adaptable framework for analysing the distributional implications of policy alternatives where savings and employment decisions matter," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 161-174.
    2. Kamil Kotlinski, 2018. "The economic consequences of leaving European Union by Great Britain," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17(2), pages 157-167, June.

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