IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v11y2023i5p151-d1150625.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Recovery Strategy of Sectoral Industries Post-COVID-19: Input–Output Model Simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Firmansyah Firmansyah

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang 50275, Indonesia)

  • Andrian Budi Prasetyo

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang 50275, Indonesia)

  • Shanty Oktavilia

    (Faculty of Economics, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Semarang 50229, Indonesia)

  • Siti Hilmiati Azyzia

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang 50275, Indonesia)

  • Dita Wahyu Puspita

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang 50275, Indonesia)

  • Albi Boykhair

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang 50275, Indonesia)

  • Fadel Nugraha

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang 50275, Indonesia)

Abstract

The global COVID-19 pandemic has suppressed the economy and people’s welfare, including in Indonesia and Central Java Province, as indicated by the weakening of the national economy by −2.06 percent and locally by −2.65 percent in 2020. Although the economy grew by 3.32 percent in 2021, societal welfare remains lower than in 2019, marked by an increase in unemployment and poverty throughout 2019–2021. Furthermore, the threat of COVID-19 including new variants of the virus continues to weigh on the economy, in 2022 and beyond. This study considered an industrial approach to production, based on inter-industrial linkages and policy simulations with input–output analysis. The objectives of this research are to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of Central Java and to formulate an effective economic recovery policy for industry. The results show that the industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Java can promote recovery of overall income in economic industry better than the leading industry and the industries with the highest output multipliers, expressed as a proportional increase in final demand for each industry. Meanwhile, the economic recovery strategy of increasing final demand in industries with high output multipliers results in a faster increase in economic output compared with increasing final demand in the affected industries or leading industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Firmansyah Firmansyah & Andrian Budi Prasetyo & Shanty Oktavilia & Siti Hilmiati Azyzia & Dita Wahyu Puspita & Albi Boykhair & Fadel Nugraha, 2023. "Economic Recovery Strategy of Sectoral Industries Post-COVID-19: Input–Output Model Simulations," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:5:p:151-:d:1150625
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/5/151/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/5/151/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    2. Igos, Elorri & Rugani, Benedetto & Rege, Sameer & Benetto, Enrico & Drouet, Laurent & Zachary, Daniel S., 2015. "Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 234-245.
    3. Theo Notteboom & Thanos Pallis & Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2021. "Disruptions and resilience in global container shipping and ports: the COVID-19 pandemic versus the 2008–2009 financial crisis," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 179-210, June.
    4. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2004. "Agglomeration and economic geography," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 58, pages 2563-2608, Elsevier.
    5. Arnold Tukker & Erik Dietzenbacher, 2013. "Global Multiregional Input-Output Frameworks: An Introduction And Outlook," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    7. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Marcel Timmer & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2013. "The Construction Of World Input-Output Tables In The Wiod Project," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-98, March.
    8. Tugrul Temel & Paul Phumpiu, 2021. "Pathways to recovery from COVID-19: characterizing input–output linkages of a targeted sector," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, December.
    9. Sharif, Arshian & Aloui, Chaker & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 1985. "Regional Input-Output Analysis," Book Chapters, in: Grant I. Thrall (ed.),Scientific Geography Series, pages 52, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    11. Chan, Ying Tung, 2022. "The macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic: A SIR-DSGE model approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), 2004. "Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcel P Timmer & Sébastien Miroudot & Gaaitzen J de Vries, 2019. "Functional specialisation in trade," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30.
    2. Dietzenbacher, Erik & Kulionis, Viktoras & Capurro, Filippo, 2020. "Measuring the effects of energy transition: A structural decomposition analysis of the change in renewable energy use between 2000 and 2014," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    3. Timon Bohn & Steven Brakman & Erik Dietzenbacher, 2019. "Who's afraid of Virginia WU? The labor composition and labor gains of trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7527, CESifo.
    4. Daniel Moran & Richard Wood, 2014. "Convergence Between The Eora, Wiod, Exiobase, And Openeu'S Consumption-Based Carbon Accounts," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 245-261, September.
    5. Tomasz Kijek & Anna Matras-Bolibok, 2020. "Knowledge-intensive Specialisation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the EU Regional Scope," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 181-188.
    6. Jean-Marc Callois & Carl Gaigné, 2010. "Attitudes Towards Foreign Products and Welfare with Capital Mobility," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 751-770, November.
    7. Daniel Croner and Ivan Frankovic, 2018. "A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Global and National Energy Intensity Trends," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    8. Pierre Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Henry G. Overman, 2005. "Agglomeration and the adjustment of the spatial economy§," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(3), pages 311-349, August.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8001 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Eivind Lekve Bjelle & Johannes Többen & Konstantin Stadler & Thomas Kastner & Michaela C. Theurl & Karl-Heinz Erb & Kjartan-Steen Olsen & Kirsten S. Wiebe & Richard Wood, 2020. "Adding country resolution to EXIOBASE: impacts on land use embodied in trade," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Michał Myck & Mateusz Najsztub, 2020. "Implications of the Polish 1999 administrative reform for regional socio‐economic development," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 559-579, October.
    12. Toshiaki Takahashi & Hajime Takatsuka & Dao-Zhi Zeng, 2013. "Spatial inequality, globalization, and footloose capital," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(1), pages 213-238, May.
    13. Kichko, Sergey & Kokovin, Sergey & Zhelobodko, Evgeny, 2014. "Trade patterns and export pricing under non-CES preferences," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 129-142.
    14. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Chiara Bentivogli & Tommaso Ferraresi & Paola Monti & Renato Paniccià & Stefano Rosignoli, 2019. "Italian Regions in Global Value Chains: An Input-Output Approach," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 55-94.
    16. Nawab, Asim & Liu, Gengyuan & Meng, Fanxin & Hao, Yan & Zhang, Yan, 2019. "Urban energy-water nexus: Spatial and inter-sectoral analysis in a multi-scale economy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 44-56.
    17. Koppány, Krisztián, 2020. "A kínai koronavírus és a magyar gazdaság kitettsége. Mit mutatnak a világ input-output táblák? [The Chinese coronavirus outbreak and the exposure of the Hungarian economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 433-455.
    18. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/8001 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Picard, Pierre M. & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2012. "Firms' locations under demand heterogeneity," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 961-974.
    20. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Grossmann, Volker & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2012. "Migration, International Trade and Capital Formation: Cause or Effect?," IZA Discussion Papers 6975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Roberts, Mark & Deichmann, Uwe & Fingleton, Bernard & Shi, Tuo, 2010. "On the road to prosperity ? The economic geography of China's national expressway network," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5479, The World Bank.
    22. Okubo, Toshihiro & Picard, Pierre M. & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2010. "The spatial selection of heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 230-237, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:5:p:151-:d:1150625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.