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Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment

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  • C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero

    (Department of Statistics, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), 01080 Mexico City, Mexico
    CREATES, Aarhus University, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark)

  • J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés

    (CREATES, Aarhus University, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
    Department of Mathematical Sciences, Aalborg University, 9210 Aalborg ∅st, Denmark)

Abstract

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of growth across centuries. In particular, shocks originated by pandemics in recent times seem to have a permanent effect on growth. Moreover, our results show that the unemployment rate increases and becomes more persistent after a pandemic. In this regard, our findings support the design and implementation of timely counter-cyclical policies to soften the shock of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Vladimir Rodríguez-Caballero & J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés, 2020. "Long-Lasting Economic Effects of Pandemics:Evidence on Growth and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:8:y:2020:i:3:p:37-:d:414685
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Dominika Gajdosikova & Katarina Valaskova & Tomas Kliestik & Veronika Machova, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Challenges in the Construction Sector: A Case Study of Slovak Enterprises," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Nitya Mittal & Janina Isabel Steinert & Sebastian Vollmer, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic, losses of livelihoods and uneven recovery in Pune, India," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.

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