IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/96373.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng Liu
  • Thuy Lan Nguyen

Abstract

Global supply chain disruptions following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the rapid rise in U.S. inflation over the past two years. Evidence suggests that supply chain pressures pushed up the cost of inputs for goods production and the public’s expectations of higher future prices. These factors accounted for about 60% of the surge in U.S. inflation beginning in early 2021. Supply chain pressures began easing substantially in mid-2022, contributing to the slowdown in inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2023. "Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(14), pages 1-6, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96373
    Note: Pacific Basin Notes are published occasionally by the Center for Pacific Basin Studies.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2023-14.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Belai Abbai & Ozge Akinci & Gianluca Benigno & Julian di Giovanni & Jan J. J. Groen & Ruth Cesar Heymann & Lawrence Lin & Adam I. Noble, 2022. "The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures," Liberty Street Economics 20220128, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Reuven Glick & Noah Kouchekinia & Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2021. "Do Households Expect Inflation When Commodities Surge?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-06, July.
    3. Huang, Kevin X. D. & Liu, Zheng, 2001. "Production chains and general equilibrium aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 437-462, October.
    4. Finck, David & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions," IMFS Working Paper Series 178, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(15), pages 1-06, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A Yildirim, "undated". "Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    2. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2014. "Why can sectoral shocks lead to sizable macroeconomic fluctuations? Assessing alternative theories by means of stochastic simulation with a general equilibrium model," Working Papers 2014:16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2008. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 627-666, June.
    4. L. Ngai & Roberto Samaniego, 2009. "Mapping prices into productivity in multisector growth models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 183-204, September.
    5. Engin Kara & Huw Dixon, 2005. "Persistence and Nominal Inertia in a Generalized Taylor Economy: How Longer Contracts Dominate Shorter Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 87, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Kevin X. D. Huang & Jonathan L. Willis, 2018. "Sectoral Interactions and Monetary Policy under Costly Price Adjustments," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 337-374, November.
    7. Nassar S. Al-Nassar & Abdulrahman A. Albahouth, 2023. "Inflation Spillovers among Advanced and Emerging Economies: Evidence from the G20 Group," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
    8. Levin, Andrew T. & López-Salido, José David & Yun, Tack, 2007. "Strategic Complementarities and Optimal Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1355, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2004. "Inflation Persistence Revisited," Working Papers 518, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Toyoichiro Shirota, 2021. "Cost of Sticky Prices under Multiple Stages of Production," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1211-1222, August.
    11. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Inflation targeting: What inflation rate to target?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1435-1462, November.
    12. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "What drives inflation? Disentangling demand and supply factors," BIS Working Papers 1047, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Marzinotto, Benedicta, 2009. "Beyond monetary credibility: The impact of globalisation on the output-inflation trade-off in euro-area countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 162-176, August.
    14. Alok Johri, 2009. "Delivering Endogenous Inertia in Prices and Output," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 736-754, October.
    15. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2004. "Inflation Persistence Revisited," Working Papers 518, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2001. "Input-Output Structure and Nominal Staggering: The Persistence Problem Revisited," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 145, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    17. Chahnez Boudaya, 2006. "Stage-specific technology shocks and employment: Could we reconcile with the RBC models?," Post-Print halshs-00115791, HAL.
    18. Michael Gail, 2001. "Persistency and Money Demand Distortions in a Stochastic DGE Model with Sticky Prices," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 96-01, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht, revised 14 Feb 2003.
    19. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Liu, Zheng & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2007. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation," Kiel Working Papers 1357, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96373. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.