IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/00081.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will the economic recovery die of old age?

Author

Listed:
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

Is the current recovery more likely to end because it?s lasted so long? Have various imbalances and rigidities accumulated to make the economy frailer and more susceptible to a recessionary shock? Recent history suggests the answer is no. Instead, a long recovery appears no more likely to end than a short one. Like Peter Pan, recoveries appear to never grow old.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Will the economic recovery die of old age?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2016-03.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 511-544, April.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Business Cycles: Durations, Dynamics, and Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 6636.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. A Monetary Policy Framework for the Next Recession
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2017-12-11 19:02:11

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Adrian Penalver & Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Deflationary Bias of the ZLB and the FED’s Strategic Response," Working papers 843, Banque de France.
    4. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2019. "Duration dependence in US expansions: A re-examination of the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
    2. Mercè Sala-Rios & Teresa Torres-Solé & Mariona Farré-Perdiguer, 2016. "Credit and business cycles’ relationship: evidence from Spain," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 15(3), pages 149-171, December.
    3. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-134.
    4. Minakshy Iyer, 2006. "An Index of Uncertainty for Business Cycle Leading Indicators," Working Papers id:751, eSocialSciences.
    5. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2133 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 2001. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov-Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 989-1013, November.
    8. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "Economic Transactions Govern Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 87207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Matthieu Lemoine & Florian Pelgrin, 2003. "Introduction aux modèles espace-état et au filtre de Kalman," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 203-229.
    10. Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "Unity and Plurality of the European Cycle," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458584, HAL.
    12. Fernando H.P.S Mendes & João Frois Caldeira & Guilherme Valle Moura, 2019. "Duration-dependent Markov-switching model: an empirical study for the Brazilian business cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 676-685.
    13. Bierens, Herman J., 2001. "Complex Unit Roots And Business Cycles: Are They Real?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 962-983, October.
    14. Meriam BouAli & Adnen Ben Nasr & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2016. "A Nonlinear Approach for Modeling and Forecasting US Business Cycles," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 39-74, March.
    15. Avdjiev, Stefan & Binder, Stephan & Sousa, Ricardo, 2021. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    16. Victor Olkhov, 2018. "Econophysics Beyond General Equilibrium: the Business Cycle Model," Papers 1804.04721, arXiv.org.
    17. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2001. "Unité et pluralité du cycle européen," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 78(3), pages 9-73.
    18. Mehdi Pedram, 2011. "Optimal monetary policy in the monetary union: effects on business cycles," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 35(1), pages 90-117, March.
    19. Zihao Wang & Kun Li & Steve Q. Xia & Hongfu Liu, 2021. "Economic Recession Prediction Using Deep Neural Network," Papers 2107.10980, arXiv.org.
    20. Chian, Abraham C.-L. & Rempel, Erico L. & Rogers, Colin, 2006. "Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1194-1218.
    21. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.