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FOMC communications and the predictability of near-term policy decisions

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Author Info

  • John B. Carlson
  • Ben Craig
  • Patrick Higgins
  • William R. Melick

Abstract

In February 1994, the FOMC began a new era in transparency, gradually building a communications apparatus that conveys information about the Committee’s decisions and expectations. Has the new apparatus improved the public’s ability to predict FOMC interest rate decisions? New research based on the prices of fed funds futures shows that over the past decade, it has, especially over horizons of two to three months.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Economic Commentary.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): Jun ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2006:i:jun

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Keywords: Federal Open Market Committee ; Federal funds rate;

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Cited by:
  1. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2013-063, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "FOMC communication policy and the accuracy of Fed Funds futures," Staff Reports 491, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, 06.
  4. Michael Chiu, 2012. "Derivatives markets, products and participants: an overview," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the workshop "Data requirements for monitoring derivative transactions", organised by the People's Bank of China and the Irving Fisher , volume 35, pages 3-11 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "Central Bank Transparency, the Accuracy of Professional Forecasts, and Interest Rate Volatility," Working Papers, Utrecht School of Economics 11-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
  6. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "The art of central banks' forward guidance at the zero lower bound," MPRA Paper 57043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "Does one word fit all? The asymmetric effects of central banks' communication policy," MPRA Paper 57150, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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