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Modern economic growth and recent stagnation

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Author Info
Scott L. Baier
Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr.
Robert Tamura

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Abstract

During the past 200 years, most countries have entered a period of modern economic growth-consistent increases in output, input, and productivity per worker that were rare in previous centuries. Even so, a few regions of the world have experienced stagnant or falling living standards in recent years, which some have interpreted as typical of modern economic growth in the last two centuries. ; Using data for most countries in the world since the 1800s and early 1900s, the authors find that (1) economic growth has improved the lives of people all around the world compared to those of their ancestors and (2) the economic stagnation or decline in some parts of the world in recent decades is unusual in the broader context of the history of the world since 1800. ; The authors find that economic growth had become nearly global by the 1950s, and the recent economic declines in four regions in recent decades are atypical. Decreases in income and productivity are likely to be transitory in Central and Eastern Europe but may be longer lasting in the Middle East and Latin America. While modern economic growth may never have begun in Sub-Saharan Africa, government policies in that region have done more to throttle economic growth than to encourage it.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Q3 ()
Pages: 45-62
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedaer:y:2003:i:q3:p:45-62:n:v.88no.3

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Related research
Keywords: Economic history ; Economic development;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & Robert Tamura, 2002. "How important are capital and total factor productivity for economic growth?," Working Paper 2002-2a, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  2. William Easterly, 2002. "The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550423.
  3. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
    Other versions:
  5. Cardoso, Eliana A. & Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1989. "Foreign private capital flows," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery† & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 1387-1439 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Explaining African Economic Performance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 64-111, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Retrospective on the Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 4963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-28.


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