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Business Cycle Synchronization through the Lens of a DSGE Model

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  • Martin SLANICAY

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Brno)

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to examine business cycle synchronization between the Czech economy and the euro area via a fully specified DSGE model. Using a two-country DSGE model I decompose the observed variables into the contributions of structural shocks and then compute conditional correlations. I also examine how these correlations evolve over time. The results indicate that productivity shocks in the tradable sector are the driving forces of different business cycle behavior, while investment efficiency shocks contribute to symmetric behavior of the two economies. The impact of shocks is most symmetric in the case of investment, output, and interest rates; the impact of shocks on these variables is highly correlated. There seems to be convergence of business cycles in the case of consumption, investment, and output, as the overall impact of shocks on these variables is getting more and more symmetric over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 63 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 180-196

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:63:y:2013:i:2:p:180-196

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Related research

Keywords: DSGE model; Bayesian estimation; shock decomposition; business cycle synchronization;

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  1. Kolasa, Marcin, 2013. "Business cycles in EU new member states: How and why are they different?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 487-496.
  2. Jakob de Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, 04.
  3. Kolasa, Marcin, 2009. "Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1245-1269, November.
  4. Silvana Tenreyro & Robert J. Barro, 2003. "Economic Effects of Currency Unions," NBER Working Papers 9435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Currency Unions," Scholarly Articles 4551795, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
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