IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/erh/journl/v9y2017i2p37-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Investigation of Stationarity Properties of the Turkish Tourism Income Variable

Author

Listed:
  • H. M. Ertugrul

    (Undersecretariat of Treasury, Ankara, Turkish Republic)

  • S. Yildirim

    (Department of Economics, Anadolu University, Eskisehir, Turkey)

  • F. Ayhan

    (Department of Business Management at Gönen Vocational High School, Bandirma Onyedi Eylul University, Balikesir, Turkey)

Abstract

Tourism has a significant impact on economic growth as put forth by the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Turkey’s earnings from tourism were 31.5 billion dollars in 2015 according to TURKSTAT. This implies that tourism is an important industry for Turkey and has a significant impact on economy. Therefore, the question whether a policy implementation in tourism is long-lasting or not is critical for both the industry and whole economy. This study researches the persistence of policies in tourism industry, employing tourism income series for period of 2009M1-2015M12 and tests the stationarity of this series using traditional unit root tests as well as a wavelet-based unit root test developed by Fan and Gencay (2010). Both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted series have been used. The empirical results point out that the traditional unit root test has a proclivity to report that tourism income series is I(1) or non-stationary. On the other hand, the wavelet-base unit root test indicates that tourism income is stationary. The empirical result of wavelet-based test implies that impact of a shock on this sector is transitory. The income in tourism industry will return more or less back to its meaning the following year.

Suggested Citation

  • H. M. Ertugrul & S. Yildirim & F. Ayhan, 2017. "An Investigation of Stationarity Properties of the Turkish Tourism Income Variable," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 37-49, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:37-49
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.era.org.tr/makaleler/336764.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    2. Samina Khalil & Mehmood Khan Kakar & Waliullah, 2007. "Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 985-995.
    3. Fan, Yanqin & Gençay, Ramazan, 2010. "Unit Root Tests With Wavelets," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(5), pages 1305-1331, October.
    4. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    5. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    6. Gautam, Bishnu Prasad, 2014. "Economic Dynamics of Tourism in Nepal: A VECM Approach," MPRA Paper 58102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jülide ÖCAL & Nadir ÖCAL, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Turkey," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 15(52-53), pages 131-141.
    8. Franses, Philip Hans, 1996. "Recent Advances in Modelling Seasonality," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 299-345, September.
    9. Amira Gasmi, 2013. "Seasonal Adjustment versus Seasonality Modelling: Effect on Tourism Demand Forecasting," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11.
    10. Hasan Murat ERTUĞRUL & Uğur SOYTAŞ, 2013. "Sanayi Üretim Endeksinin Durağanlık Özellikleri," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 28(328), pages 51-66.
    11. Jordan Shan & Ken Wilson, 2001. "Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 279-283.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schubert, Stefan Franz & Brida, Juan Gabriel, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of Economic Growth in a Small Tourism Driven Economy," MPRA Paper 16737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun & Khayereddine Salim Adda & Asma Hadjira Sebbane, 2021. "Examining the connection among national tourism expenditure and economic growth in Algeria," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Andreas G. Georgantopoulos, 2013. "Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: Var/Vecm Analysis and Forecasts for the Case of India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(4), pages 464-482, April.
    4. Faiza Manzoor & Longbao Wei & Muhammad Asif & Muhammad Zia ul Haq & Hafiz ur Rehman, 2019. "The Contribution of Sustainable Tourism to Economic Growth and Employment in Pakistan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-14, October.
    5. Yong Su & Jacob Cherian & Muhammad Safdar Sial & Alina Badulescu & Phung Anh Thu & Daniel Badulescu & Sarminah Samad, 2021. "Does Tourism Affect Economic Growth of China? A Panel Granger Causality Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Sadia Bano & Mehtab Alam & Anwar Khan & Lu Liu, 2021. "The nexus of tourism, renewable energy, income, and environmental quality: an empirical analysis of Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14854-14877, October.
    7. Nasir Muhammad Ali & Wu Junjie & Guerrero José Calderón, 2015. "Economic Growth, Exchange Rate and Constrained Competiveness of the Tourism Sector in Andalucía," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 48(1), pages 84-100, December.
    8. El in Aykac Alp & Elif Guneren Genc, 2015. "The Relation between Current Account Deficit and Tourism: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 448-453.
    9. E. M. Ekanayake & Aubrey E. Long, 2012. "Tourism Development And Economic Growth In Developing Countries," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(1), pages 51-63.
    10. José Antonio Camuñez & Maria P Pablo-Romero & Javier Sánchez-Rivas, 2018. "Tourism capital," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(7), pages 889-900, November.
    11. Zdravko Sergo, 2019. "Inter-Generational Employment Spillovers From Tourism Across The Eu," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 28(1), pages 97-125, june.
    12. Raza, Syed Ali & Jawaid, Syed Tehseen, 2013. "Terrorism and tourism: A conjunction and ramification in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 65-70.
    13. Jayaraman, Tiru & Choong, Chee-Keong & Fatt Ng, Cheong & Bhatt, Markand, 2017. "Tourism-Growth Nexus in the South Pacific Islands: Role of Financial Sector Development as a Contingent Factor An Empirical Study of Fiji: 1980-2014," MPRA Paper 79461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sana Naseem, 2021. "The Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-12, August.
    15. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad & Jaweria Haleem, 2021. "The Governance and Tourism: A Case of Developing Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(3), pages 199-213, September.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Ivanov, Stanislav & Loganathan, Nanthakumar, 2015. "Nexus between Tourism demand and output per capita with relative importance of trade and financial development: A study of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 67226, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Oct 2015.
    17. Salahodjaev, Raufhon & Safarova, Nilufar, 2015. "Do foreign visitors reward post-communist countries? A panel evidence for tourism-growth nexus," MPRA Paper 66215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Vanegas Sr., Manuel & Croes, Robertico, 2007. "Tourism, Economic Expansion and Poverty in Nicaragua: Investigating Cointegration and Causal Relations," Staff Papers 7306, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    19. Holzner, Mario, 2011. "Tourism and economic development: The beach disease?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 922-933.
    20. Boopen Seetanah & Kesseven Padachi & Sawkut Rojid, 2011. "Tourism and Economic Growth: African Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-033, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism Income; Unit Root; Wavelet; Stationarity Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:37-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. F. Cosar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eratrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.