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Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kashif Munir
  • Maryam Sultan

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of taxes on economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. Design/methodology/approach - The study uses simple time series model, where real GDP is dependent variable and different forms of taxes are explanatory variables under ARDL framework from 1976 to 2014 at annual frequency for Pakistan. Findings - Direct taxes have positive relation with economic growth in the long run. Sales tax, tax on international trade (tariffs) and other indirect taxes have positive impact on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run as well as in the short run. However, sales tax and other indirect taxes impact negatively on economic growth in the short run after one year because people realize decline in their real income. Practical implications - Government should increase direct taxes by increasing tax base. Indirect taxes usually indicate negative impact after one and two years; therefore, government should decrease its reliance on indirect taxes. Government should promote tax awareness among the people which increase the tax morale of people and increase the tax base. Originality/value - Taxes are disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes, while indirect taxes have been further disaggregated into excise duty, sales tax, surcharges, tax on international trade and other indirect taxes. This study provides useful insight for policy makers in designing taxes and their effect on growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Kashif Munir & Maryam Sultan, 2018. "Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(10), pages 1439-1452, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:ijse-09-2017-0416
    DOI: 10.1108/IJSE-09-2017-0416
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    Cited by:

    1. Arvin, Mak B. & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Nair, Mahendhiran S., 2021. "Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower middle-income countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 468-489.
    2. Kashif Munir & Nimra Riaz, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Pakistan: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 141-165, June.
    3. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Mahendhiran S. Nair & John H. Hall, 2022. "The dynamics between financial market development, taxation propensity, and economic growth: a study of OECD and non-OECD countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1503-1534, June.
    4. Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero, 2019. "Effect of Apportioned Federal Revenue on Economic Growth: The Nigerian Experience," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(4), pages 172-180, July.
    5. Anwar Rashed Al Quraan, 2020. "General Sales Tax and Economic Growth in Small Open Developing Countries - Evidence from Jordan," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 16(3), pages 7-15.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pakistan; ARDL; Economic growth; Direct tax; Indirect tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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