IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eip/journl/y2018i3p7-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Theory and practice of the use of fiscal sustainability indicators

Author

Listed:
  • D. Tverdokhlibova

Abstract

The author notes that, in their studies on fiscal policy, Ukrainian scientists are now beginning to use fiscal sustainability indicators. However, some researchers allow themselves to freely treat the formulas of these indicators (by discarding individual components or introducing new variables), which calls into question the results of calculations and conclusions drawn from them. The article reveals the origin of the formulas for fiscal sustainability indicators. The author presents the derivation of a one-period budget constraint in relative variables, a budget constraint for a finite period of time and a budget constraint for an infinite period of time (intertemporal budget constraint). The content of the no-Ponzi game condition is revealed. The author shows how the formula for calculating the indicator of medium-term fiscal sustainability S1 is derived from a budget constraint for a finite period of time, and the formula for calculating the indicator of long-term fiscal sustainability S2 – from an intertemporal budget constraint. The meaning of these indicators and their components is explained in accordance with the interpretations of the Europe-an Commission. Identified parameters whose values affect the values of fiscal sustainability indicators. It is shown which target values of public debt are selected by the countries that compile reports on fiscal sustainability. The author provides the items of revenues and expenses, whose impact on fiscal sustainability is investigated in different countries and gives a concept of basic and alternative calculation scenarios. The example of Canada and the European Union shows the values of the parameters of the medium-term fiscal sustainability indicator S1 in the baseline scenario and what values these parameters may have in the alternative scenarios. It is noted that, with the help of fiscal sustainability indicators, it is possible to assess the sustainability of both the general government budget and budgets of lower levels, as well as budgets of state social insurance funds. Presented the classification of the risks to fiscal sustainability in the medium and long-term periods, which is used by the European Commission. On the example of Ukraine, the author shows the sensitivity of medium-term fiscal sustainability indicator to changes in the values of its parameters. The process of decision-making on fiscal policy with the help of fiscal sustainability indicators S1 and S2 is illustrated. Highlighted the points that need to be considered when calculating the indicators' values.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Tverdokhlibova, 2018. "Theory and practice of the use of fiscal sustainability indicators," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 3, pages 7-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2018:i:3:p:7-47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eip.org.ua/docs/EP_18_3_07_uk.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2010. "The Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 21546, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Eugene Goryunov & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2015. "Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 168P, pages 1-58.
    3. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 53919, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Mr. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Congressional Budget Office, 2016. "The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 51580, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Congressional Budget Office, 2017. "The 2017 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 52480, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. repec:cbo:report:215461 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Congressional Budget Office, 2010. "The Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 21546, Congressional Budget Office.
    9. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 43288, Congressional Budget Office.
    10. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 44521, Congressional Budget Office.
    11. Congressional Budget Office, 2015. "The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 50250, Congressional Budget Office.
    12. Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 44521, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 43288, Congressional Budget Office.
    14. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 45471, Congressional Budget Office.
    15. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The 2012 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 43288, Congressional Budget Office.
    16. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 10/02, International Monetary Fund.
    17. repec:cbo:report:515801 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Congressional Budget Office, 2015. "The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 50250, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph Steinberg, 2019. "On the Source of U.S. Trade Deficits: Global Saving Glut or Domestic Saving Drought?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 200-223, January.
    2. Jonathan M. Harris, 2019. "Responding to Economic and Ecological Deficits," GDAE Working Papers 19-01, GDAE, Tufts University.
    3. Òscar Jordà & Chitra Marti & Fernanda Nechio & Eric Tallman, 2019. "Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Kazumasa Oguro, 2014. "Challenges confronting Abenomics and Japanese public finance ?Fiscal consolidation must start by squarely facing reality?," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 301-318, August.
    5. Cardon James H. & Moore Joel & Showalter Mark H., 2012. "The Distributional Effects of Health Reform Limits on Flexible Spending Accounts," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, November.
    6. Robert D. Lieberthal, 2016. "Hedging Medical Spending Growth: An Adaptive Expectations Approach," Applied Finance and Accounting, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 57-64, August.
    7. Richter, Alexander W., 2015. "Finite lifetimes, long-term debt and the fiscal limit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 180-203.
    8. Igor Yu. Arlashkin, 2021. "Clustering of Russian Regions by Level of Debt Sustainability," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 108-124, October.
    9. Duncan Ermini Leaf & Bryan Tysinger & Dana P. Goldman & Darius N. Lakdawalla, 2021. "Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 52-79, November.
    10. Thomas Grennes, 2013. "Diminishing Quality of Fiscal Institutions in the United States and European Union," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 33(1), pages 91-109, Winter.
    11. Nora Traum & Shu‐Chun S. Yang, 2015. "When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 24-45, January.
    12. Thomas Url & Rob J Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    13. Hans B. Christensen & Eric Floyd & Mark Maffett, 2020. "The Only Prescription Is Transparency: The Effect of Charge-Price-Transparency Regulation on Healthcare Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 2861-2882, July.
    14. Jeffrey B. Liebman, 2013. "The Deterioration in the US Fiscal Outlook, 2001-2010," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-18.
    15. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Leonard Burman, 2013. "Pathways to Tax Reform Revisted," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 155, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    17. Min Xu & Jeanne M. David & Suk Hi Kim, 2018. "The Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 on the US Government Debt," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 7(4), pages 01-09, October.
    18. Christopher C. Afendulis & Michael E. Chernew & Daniel P. Kessler, 2013. "The Effect of Medicare Advantage on Hospital Admissions and Mortality," NBER Working Papers 19101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07," Working Papers 44941, Congressional Budget Office.
    20. Sebastian Rausch & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2018. "The Intergenerational Incidence Of Green Tax Reform," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-25, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eip:journl:y:2018:i:3:p:7-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iryna Bazhal (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://eip.org.ua/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.