IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v69y2018icp158-169.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income changes on maritime freight flows between Japan and the US

Author

Listed:
  • Chi, Junwook

Abstract

Past studies have generally used the perfect reversibility of exchange rate and income changes on trade flows, assuming that the impacts of a positive change in exchange rate (income) are of the same magnitude and move in the opposite direction of the effects of a negative change. To date, no empirical evidence has been found to support the potential asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income on maritime trade flows. The objective of this paper is to explore the long-run exchange rate and income asymmetries in bilateral maritime freight flows between Japan and the US. We use both aggregate and disaggregate industry data from January 2003 to July 2016 in a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. From the nonlinear ARDL models, the exchange rate is found to be an important factor affecting the maritime freight flows in exporting and importing industries in Japan. This conclusion differs from the findings from the linear ARDL models in which exchange rate is insignificant in the majority of cases. More importantly, we find empirical evidence of the asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income on the bilateral maritime freight flows at both aggregate and disaggregate levels. This suggests that using the perfectly reversible (linear) elasticities of demand could mislead the effects of exchange rate and income changes and result in biased estimation. At the disaggregate level, the asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income changes tend to vary across industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi, Junwook, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income changes on maritime freight flows between Japan and the US," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 158-169.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:158-169
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.05.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X17308909
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.05.019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nadenichek, Jon, 2000. "The Japan-US trade imbalance: a real business cycle perspective," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 255-271, September.
    2. Clark, Ximena & Dollar, David & Micco, Alejandro, 2004. "Port efficiency, maritime transport costs, and bilateral trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 417-450, December.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Chi, Junwook, 2016. "Exchange rate and transport cost sensitivities of bilateral freight flows between the US and China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artarana, 2007. "Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 483-489, December.
    6. Richard E. Baldwin & Philippe Martin & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 2, pages 25-57, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
    8. Mrs. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows: Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 1999/001, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ferda Halicioglu & Sahar Bahmani, 2017. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(42), pages 4261-4270, September.
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "The Japanese-U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-171, March.
    12. Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 66-76.
    13. Hwang, Cherng-Chwan & Shiao, Guo-Chou, 2011. "Analyzing air cargo flows of international routes: an empirical study of Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 738-744.
    14. Olugbenga Onafowora, 2003. "Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J-curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(18), pages 1-13.
    15. Vincent F. Valentine & Hassiba Benamara & Jan Hoffmann, 2013. "Maritime transport and international seaborne trade," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 226-242, May.
    16. Sam Peltzman, 2000. "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June.
    17. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Baek, Jungho, 2016. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 15-30.
    18. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
    19. Lee, Choong Bae & Wan, Junbin & Shi, Wenming & Li, Kevin, 2014. "A cross-country study of competitiveness of the shipping industry," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 366-376.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2017. "Do Exchange Rate Changes Have Symmetric or Asymmetric Effects on the Demand for Money in Korea? ," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 9(2), pages 155-168, December.
    21. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan's bilateral trade flows," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    22. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2017. "The Japanese trade balance and asymmetric effects of yen fluctuations: Evidence using nonlinear methods," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 56-63.
    23. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2017. "Asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Japan," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 774-790, November.
    24. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tatchawan Kanitpong, 2017. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balances of Asian countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(46), pages 4668-4678, October.
    25. David S Jacks & Krishna Pendakur, 2010. "Global Trade and the Maritime Transport Revolution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 745-755, November.
    26. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty & Dan Xi, 2016. "Third-country exchange rate volatility and Japanese--US trade: evidence from industry-level data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(16), pages 1452-1462, April.
    27. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer, 2021. "The Impacts of Trade Policy Uncertainties on Bilateral Trade Balances of the United States and Japan," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(3), pages 236-247, September.
    2. Patrycja Krawczyk & Patrycja Kokot-Stepien, 2020. "The impact of the exchange rate on the financial result of enterprises in the transport sector," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 19(1), pages 47-60, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chi, Junwook, 2016. "Exchange rate and transport cost sensitivities of bilateral freight flows between the US and China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Sung-Ko Li & Chun-Kei Tsang, 2020. "The Impacts Of Biased Resource Allocation On The Effectiveness Of Official Development Assistance," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(01), pages 239-256, March.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2019. "Who benefits from euro depreciation in the euro zone?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 577-595, August.
    4. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Hussain Ghumro, 2018. "Asymmetric Impact Of Exchange Rate Changes On The Trade Balance: Does Global Financial Crisis Matter?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Mei-Se Chien & Nur Setyowati & Chih-Yang Cheng, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Bilateral Trade Between Taiwan And Indonesia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(04), pages 857-888, June.
    6. Yaya KEHO, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Trade Balance in WAEMU Countries: Evidence from Panel Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 5(2), pages 1-22.
    7. Bao, Ho Hoang Gia & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "ASEAN's trade balance with the whole EU-28 at industry level: The role of vehicle currency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    8. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    9. Sy-Hoa Ho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rates on money demand: empirical evidence from Vietnam," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(34), pages 3948-3961, July.
    10. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    11. Walter, Jason & Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2012. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of U.S. bilateral trade with G-7 countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 398-405.
    12. S. M. Woahid Murad, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Uncertainty on Money Demand Function in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear ARDL and Cumulative Fourier Causality Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(3), pages 201-213, December.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2011. "How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 53-91, February.
    14. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tatchawan Kanitpong, 2019. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Thailand-China Commodity Trade: Evidence From 45 Industries," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 203-231, May.
    17. S. M. Woahid Murad, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Uncertainty on Money Demand Function in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear ARDL and Cumulative Fourier Causality Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-13, September.
    18. Sy Hoa Ho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2019. "Symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rates on money demand: Empirical evidence from Vietnam," Working Papers hal-02421007, HAL.
    19. S. M. Woahid Murad, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Uncertainty on Money Demand Function in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear ARDL and Cumulative Fourier Causality Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 20(2), pages 187-199, September.
    20. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Maki Nayeri, Majid & Niroomand, Farhang, 2019. "On the link between real effective value of Tunisia’s Dinar and its sectoral trade with the rest of the world: New evidence from asymmetry analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 111-118.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:158-169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.