IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reecon/v66y2012i4p398-405.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International trade and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of U.S. bilateral trade with G-7 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Walter, Jason
  • Baek, Jungho
  • Koo, Won W.

Abstract

The short- and long-run effects of exchange rates, income, interest rates and government spending on U.S. bilateral trade with the other G-7 countries are investigated using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The primary contribution of this study is to consider separating the analysis of exports and imports in an integrated model that empirically encompasses four major schools of thoughts – elasticity, Keynesian income, absorption and monetary approaches – in order to identify macroeconomic linkages to U.S. bilateral trade with the other G-7 countries accurately. Results suggest that, in both the short- and long-run, U.S. imports and exports are highly sensitive to changes in U.S. and foreign income, while U.S. imports and exports are relatively insensitive to changes in bilateral exchange rate. It is also found that both exports and imports are more responsive to changes in government spending than changes in interest rates in both the short- and long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter, Jason & Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2012. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of U.S. bilateral trade with G-7 countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 398-405.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:66:y:2012:i:4:p:398-405
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2012.06.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090944312000348
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rie.2012.06.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Recent developments in the analysis of monetary policy rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Nov), pages 3-12.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
    4. David K. Backus, 1993. "The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects," Working Papers 93-25, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "In Search of Substitution Between Foreign Production and Exports," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 9, pages 293-323, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1975. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Policy in a Popular Model of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 859-871, December.
    8. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Clements, Leianne A., 2003. "The commodity composition of US-Japanese trade and the yen/dollar real exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 307-330, August.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "The Japanese-U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-171, March.
    10. Won W. Koo & Renan Zhuang, 2007. "The Role Of Exchange Rate In Sino‐U.S. Bilateral Trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 362-373, July.
    11. Johnson, Harry G., 1977. "The monetary approach to the balance of payments : A nontechnical guide," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 251-268, August.
    12. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan's bilateral trade flows," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2009. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity Of Australia'S Trade Flows: Evidence From Industry Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 1-16, January.
    15. Marina V. N. Whitman, 1975. "Global Monetarism and the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(3), pages 491-556.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Willem THORBECKE, 2024. "Investigating Japan’s Machinery and Equipment Exports after the Global Financial Crisis," Discussion papers 24033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Willem Thorbecke, 2015. "Understanding Japan's Capital Goods Exports," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 536-549, December.
    3. Junwook Chi, 2015. "Dynamic Impacts of Income and the Exchange Rate on US Tourism, 1960–2011," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 1047-1060, October.
    4. İsmail Durak & Ergün Eroğlu, 2019. "The Nexus of Economic Growth, Trade Openness and Banking Sector Depth In OIC: An Application of Panel Data Analysis," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 7(2), pages 205-238, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ayşen SİVRİKAYA & Serdar ONGAN, 2019. "BREXIT and the J-Curve Hypothesis for the UK: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(40).
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bolhassani, Marzieh & Hegerty, Scott W., 2010. "The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 212-223, December.
    4. Natalya Ketenci & Idil Uz, 2011. "Bilateral and regional trade elasticities of the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 839-854, May.
    5. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2020. "Currency devaluation and trade balance: Evidence from the US services trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 20-37.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2011. "How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 53-91, February.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Salman Huseynov & Rustam Jamilov, 2014. "Is there a J-curve for Azerbaijan? New evidence from industry-level analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 83-98, March.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:26:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Junwook Chi, 2015. "Dynamic Impacts of Income and the Exchange Rate on US Tourism, 1960–2011," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 1047-1060, October.
    10. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2009. "Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Bilateral Agricultural Trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(2), pages 187-203, June.
    11. Nektarios A. Michail, 2018. "Estimating a Bilateral J‐curve between the UK and the Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 86(6), pages 757-769, December.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2010. "The J-curve: Malaysia versus her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(9), pages 1067-1076.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2007. "Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(26), pages 1-12.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2008. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between US and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2735-2747.
    15. M. Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 231-240, December.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2020. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(25), pages 2679-2693, May.
    17. Chi, Junwook, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income changes on maritime freight flows between Japan and the US," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 158-169.
    18. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "India's trade with USA and her trade balance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yomgqing Wang, 2007. "The J‐Curve At The Industry Level: Evidence From Trade Between The Us And Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 315-328, December.
    20. Bao, Ho Hoang Gia & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "ASEAN's trade balance with the whole EU-28 at industry level: The role of vehicle currency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    21. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 213-228, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; Japan; Trade; U.S.;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:66:y:2012:i:4:p:398-405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622941 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.