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Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London

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  • Hickman, Robin
  • Ashiru, Olu
  • Banister, David

Abstract

Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO2 emission reduction targets. This paper reports on the findings of the VIBAT London study (www.vibat.org) which considers the role of the transport sector in reducing CO2 emissions in London. The analysis develops a transport and carbon simulation model (TC-SIM) for London. Within this, users are able to consider the implementation of a series of potential policy packages--low emission vehicles, alternative fuels, pricing regimes, public transport, walking and cycling, strategic and local urban planning, information and communication technologies, smarter choices, ecological driving and slower speeds, long distance travel substitution, freight transport and international air. They can select variable levels of application to help achieve headline CO2 emission reduction targets. The roles of carbon rationing and oil prices are also considered. TC-SIM can be played in different user modes: as 'free riders', 'techno-optimists', 'enviro-optimists', 'complacent car addicts' and other typical travel market segments, including a 'free role'. Game playing or scenario testing such as this helps to highlight perceived levels of homogeneity of views within certain cohorts, the development of entrenched positions and the likely success in achieving objectives. The paper develops various policy packages, scenarios and pathways aimed at reducing transport CO2 emissions. It argues that strategic CO2 emission reduction targets are very ambitious relative to current progress, and that we need to act more effectively across a wide range of policy mechanisms, with a 'high intensity application' of many of the options, to get near to achieving these targets. A critical issue here will be in communicating and gaining greater 'ownership' of future lifestyle choices with stakeholders and the public, and participation tools such as TC-SIM could become increasingly important in this area.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transport Policy.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 110-125

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Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:110-125

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Keywords: Transport Climate change Carbon Scenarios Policy packages London;

References

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  1. Shiftan, Yoram & Outwater, Maren L. & Zhou, Yushuang, 2008. "Transit market research using structural equation modeling and attitudinal market segmentation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 186-195, May.
  2. Anable, Jillian, 2005. "'Complacent Car Addicts' or 'Aspiring Environmentalists'? Identifying travel behaviour segments using attitude theory," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 65-78, January.
  3. Hickman, Robin & Banister, David, 2007. "Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 377-387, September.
  4. David Banister & Robin Hickman, 2009. "Techno-optimism: progress towards CO 2 reduction targets in transport: a UK and London perspective," International Journal of Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 24-47.
  5. Bomb, Christian & McCormick, Kes & Deurwaarder, Ewout & Kaberger, Tomas, 2007. "Biofuels for transport in Europe: Lessons from Germany and the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2256-2267, April.
  6. Di Lucia, Lorenzo & Nilsson, Lars J., 2007. "Transport biofuels in the European Union: The state of play," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 533-543, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cools, Mario & Brijs, Kris & Tormans, Hans & Moons, Elke & Janssens, Davy & Wets, Geert, 2011. "The socio-cognitive links between road pricing acceptability and changes in travel-behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 779-788, October.
  2. Taeihagh, Araz & Bañares-Alcántara, René & Givoni, Moshe, 2014. "A virtual environment for the formulation of policy packages," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 53-68.
  3. Hickman, Robin & Saxena, Sharad & Banister, David & Ashiru, Olu, 2012. "Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 560-575.
  4. de Luca, Stefano, 2014. "Public engagement in strategic transportation planning: An analytic hierarchy process based approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 110-124.
  5. Banister, David & Hickman, Robin, 2013. "Transport futures: Thinking the unthinkable," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 283-293.
  6. Pengjun Zhao & Ralph Chapman & Edward Randal & Philippa Howden-Chapman, 2013. "Understanding Resilient Urban Futures: A Systemic Modelling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(7), pages 3202-3223, July.
  7. Al-Ghandoor, Ahmed & Jaber, Jamal & Al-Hinti, Ismael & Abdallat, Yousef, 2013. "Statistical assessment and analyses of the determinants of transportation sector gasoline demand in Jordan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 129-138.
  8. Kopnina, Helen, 2011. "Kids and cars: Environmental attitudes in children," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 573-578, August.
  9. Eliasson , Jonas & Proost, Stef, 2014. "Is sustainable transport policy sustainable?," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:2, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).

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