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A threshold model of social contagion process for evacuation decision making

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  • Hasan, Samiul
  • Ukkusuri, Satish V.

Abstract

Individual evacuation decisions are often characterized by the influence of one’s social network. In this paper a threshold model of social contagion, originally proposed in the network science literature, is presented to characterize this social influence in the evacuation decision making process. Initiated by a single agent, the condition of a cascade when a portion of the population decides to evacuate has been derived from the model. Simulation models are also developed to investigate the effects of community mixing patterns and the initial seed on cascade propagation and the effect of previous time-steps considered by the agents and the strength of ties on average cascade size. Insights related to social influence include the significant role of mixing patterns among communities in the network and the role of the initial seed on cascade propagation. Specifically, faster propagation of warning is observed in community networks with greater inter-community connections.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan, Samiul & Ukkusuri, Satish V., 2011. "A threshold model of social contagion process for evacuation decision making," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1590-1605.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:45:y:2011:i:10:p:1590-1605
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2011.07.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Takahiro Yabe & P. Suresh C. Rao & Satish V. Ukkusuri, 2021. "Modeling the Influence of Online Social Media Information on Post-Disaster Mobility Decisions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-13, May.
    2. Hu, Zhi-Hua & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing & Xiao, Ling, 2014. "Post-disaster evacuation and temporary resettlement considering panic and panic spread," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-132.
    3. He, Yuxuan & Liu, Nan, 2015. "Methodology of emergency medical logistics for public health emergencies," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 178-200.
    4. Sadri, Arif Mohaimin & Ukkusuri, Satish V. & Gladwin, Hugh, 2017. "Modeling joint evacuation decisions in social networks: The case of Hurricane Sandy," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 50-60.
    5. Yulei Song & Xuedong Yan, 2016. "A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, October.
    6. Hemant Gehlot & Arif M. Sadri & Satish V. Ukkusuri, 2019. "Joint modeling of evacuation departure and travel times in hurricanes," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 2419-2440, December.
    7. Elisa Borowski & Amanda Stathopoulos, 2022. "Protection or Peril of Following the Crowd in a Pandemic-Concurrent Flood Evacuation," Papers 2202.00229, arXiv.org.
    8. Madireddy, Manini & Kumara, Soundar & Medeiros, D.J. & Shankar, Venky N., 2015. "Leveraging social networks for efficient hurricane evacuation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 199-212.
    9. Yudi Zhang & Lei He, 2022. "Research on the Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Community Residents’ Night Evacuation Behavior Based on Structural Equation Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, October.
    10. Zhang, Lin & Wen, Huiying & Lu, Jian & Lei, Da & Li, Shubin & Ukkusuri, Satish V., 2022. "Exploring cascading reliability of multi-modal public transit network based on complex networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    11. David S. Dixon & Pallab Mozumder & William F. Vásquez & Hugh Gladwin, 2017. "Heterogeneity Within and Across Households in Hurricane Evacuation Response," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 645-680, June.
    12. Di Liang & Ran Bhamra & Zhongyi Liu & Yucheng Pan, 2022. "Risk Propagation and Supply Chain Health Control Based on the SIR Epidemic Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Li, Zhenpeng & Tang, Xijin, 2019. "Robustness of complex networks to cascading failures induced by Poisson fluctuating loads," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    14. Zhiyi Meng & Liming Yao, 2018. "Earthquake triggered networked risk and response: based on relevant literature," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(6), pages 2645-2666, November.

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