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Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises

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  • Kyu-Min Lee
  • Jae-Suk Yang
  • Gunn Kim
  • Jaesung Lee
  • Kwang-Il Goh
  • In-mook Kim
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    Abstract

    Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors a higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing the vulnerability of global economic system to extreme crises.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1011.4336
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1011.4336.

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    Date of creation: Nov 2010
    Date of revision: Apr 2011
    Publication status: Published in PLoS ONE 6(3): e18443 (2011)
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1011.4336

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    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. Raja Kali & Javier Reyes, 2010. "Financial Contagion On The International Trade Network," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 1072-1101, October.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    3. Raja Kali & Javier Reyes, 2007. "The architecture of globalization: a network approach to international economic integration," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 595-620, July.
    4. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    5. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce Greenwald & Alberto Russo & Joseph Stiglitz, 2009. "Business fluctuations and bankruptcy avalanches in an evolving network economy," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 195-212, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Sandoval, Leonidas & Franca, Italo De Paula, 2012. "Correlation of financial markets in times of crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 187-208.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Gianluca Santoni, 2014. "Human-Mobility Networks, Country Income, and Labor Productivity," LEM Papers Series 2014/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Leonidas Sandoval Junior, 2011. "A Map of the Brazilian Stock Market," Papers 1107.4146, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2013.
    4. Leonidas Sandoval Junior, 2011. "Pruning a Minimum Spanning Tree," Papers 1109.0642, arXiv.org.
    5. Giulia Rotundo & Anna D’Arcangelis, 2014. "Network of companies: an analysis of market concentration in the Italian stock market," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1893-1910, July.
    6. Sandoval, Leonidas, 2012. "Pruning a minimum spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2678-2711.

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