IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v150y2021icp524-539.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Calibration of stochastic link-based fundamental diagram with explicit consideration of speed heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Bai, Lu
  • Wong, S.C.
  • Xu, Pengpeng
  • Chow, Andy H.F.
  • Lam, William H.K.

Abstract

This study aims to establish a stochastic link-based fundamental diagram (FD) with explicit consideration of two available sources of uncertainty: speed heterogeneity, indicated by the speed variance within an interval, and rainfall intensity. A stochastic structure was proposed to incorporate the speed heterogeneity into the traffic stream model, and the random-parameter structures were applied to reveal the unobserved heterogeneity in the mean speeds at an identical density. The proposed stochastic link-based FD was calibrated and validated using real-world traffic data obtained from two selected road segments in Hong Kong. Traffic data were obtained from the Hong Kong Journey Time Indication System operated by the Hong Kong Transport Department during January 1 to December 31, 2017. The data related to rainfall intensity were obtained from the Hong Kong Observatory. A two-stage calibration based on Bayesian inference was proposed for estimating the stochastic link-based FD parameters. The predictive performances of the proposed model and three other models were compared using K-fold cross-validation. The results suggest that the random-parameter model considering the speed heterogeneity effect performs better in terms of both goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy. The effect of speed heterogeneity accounts for 18%–24% of the total heterogeneity effects on the variance of FD. In addition, there exists unobserved heterogeneity across the mean speeds at an identical density, and the rainfall intensity negatively affects the mean speed and its effect on the variance of FD differs at different densities.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Lu & Wong, S.C. & Xu, Pengpeng & Chow, Andy H.F. & Lam, William H.K., 2021. "Calibration of stochastic link-based fundamental diagram with explicit consideration of speed heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 524-539.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:150:y:2021:i:c:p:524-539
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2021.06.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261521001326
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trb.2021.06.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jabari, Saif Eddin & Liu, Henry X., 2013. "A stochastic model of traffic flow: Gaussian approximation and estimation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-41.
    2. Coifman, Benjamin, 2015. "Empirical flow-density and speed-spacing relationships: Evidence of vehicle length dependency," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-65.
    3. Castillo, J. M. Del & Benítez, F. G., 1995. "On the functional form of the speed-density relationship--I: General theory," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 373-389, October.
    4. Zhang, H.M. & Kim, T., 2005. "A car-following theory for multiphase vehicular traffic flow," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 385-399, June.
    5. Qian, Wei-Liang & F. Siqueira, Adriano & F. Machado, Romuel & Lin, Kai & Grant, Ted W., 2017. "Dynamical capacity drop in a nonlinear stochastic traffic model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 328-339.
    6. Paul I. Richards, 1956. "Shock Waves on the Highway," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 4(1), pages 42-51, February.
    7. Daganzo, Carlos F., 2002. "A behavioral theory of multi-lane traffic flow. Part II: Merges and the onset of congestion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 159-169, February.
    8. Harold Greenberg, 1959. "An Analysis of Traffic Flow," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 7(1), pages 79-85, February.
    9. Ghiasi, Amir & Hussain, Omar & Qian, Zhen (Sean) & Li, Xiaopeng, 2017. "A mixed traffic capacity analysis and lane management model for connected automated vehicles: A Markov chain method," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 266-292.
    10. Siqueira, Adriano F. & Peixoto, Carlos J.T. & Wu, Chen & Qian, Wei-Liang, 2016. "Effect of stochastic transition in the fundamental diagram of traffic flow," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Qu, Xiaobo & Zhang, Jin & Wang, Shuaian, 2017. "On the stochastic fundamental diagram for freeway traffic: Model development, analytical properties, validation, and extensive applications," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 256-271.
    12. Wang, Haizhong & Li, Jia & Chen, Qian-Yong & Ni, Daiheng, 2011. "Logistic modeling of the equilibrium speed-density relationship," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 554-566, July.
    13. Jabari, Saif Eddin & Zheng, Jianfeng & Liu, Henry X., 2014. "A probabilistic stationary speed–density relation based on Newell’s simplified car-following model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 205-223.
    14. Daganzo, Carlos F., 2002. "A behavioral theory of multi-lane traffic flow. Part I: Long homogeneous freeway sections," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 131-158, February.
    15. Leslie C. Edie, 1961. "Car-Following and Steady-State Theory for Noncongested Traffic," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 66-76, February.
    16. Kim, T. & Zhang, H.M., 2008. "A stochastic wave propagation model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 619-634, August.
    17. G. F. Newell, 1961. "Nonlinear Effects in the Dynamics of Car Following," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 209-229, April.
    18. Windover, John R. & Cassidy, Michael J., 2001. "Some observed details of freeway traffic evolution," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 881-894, December.
    19. Wu, Ning, 2002. "A new approach for modeling of Fundamental Diagrams," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 867-884, December.
    20. Castillo, J. M. Del & Benítez, F. G., 1995. "On the functional form of the speed-density relationship--II: Empirical investigation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 391-406, October.
    21. Laval, Jorge A. & Daganzo, Carlos F., 2006. "Lane-changing in traffic streams," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 251-264, March.
    22. Tordeux, Antoine & Lassarre, Sylvain & Roussignol, Michel, 2010. "An adaptive time gap car-following model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(8-9), pages 1115-1131, September.
    23. Sumalee, A. & Zhong, R.X. & Pan, T.L. & Szeto, W.Y., 2011. "Stochastic cell transmission model (SCTM): A stochastic dynamic traffic model for traffic state surveillance and assignment," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-533, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Qixiu & Lin, Yuqian & Zhou, Xuesong (Simon) & Liu, Zhiyuan, 2024. "Analytical formulation for explaining the variations in traffic states: A fundamental diagram modeling perspective with stochastic parameters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(1), pages 182-197.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qu, Xiaobo & Zhang, Jin & Wang, Shuaian, 2017. "On the stochastic fundamental diagram for freeway traffic: Model development, analytical properties, validation, and extensive applications," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 256-271.
    2. Jabari, Saif Eddin & Zheng, Jianfeng & Liu, Henry X., 2014. "A probabilistic stationary speed–density relation based on Newell’s simplified car-following model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 205-223.
    3. Zhang, Jin & Qu, Xiaobo & Wang, Shuaian, 2018. "Reproducible generation of experimental data sample for calibrating traffic flow fundamental diagram," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 41-52.
    4. Niek Baer & Richard J. Boucherie & Jan-Kees C. W. van Ommeren, 2019. "Threshold Queueing to Describe the Fundamental Diagram of Uninterrupted Traffic," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(2), pages 585-596, March.
    5. Cheng, Qixiu & Liu, Zhiyuan & Lin, Yuqian & Zhou, Xuesong (Simon), 2021. "An s-shaped three-parameter (S3) traffic stream model with consistent car following relationship," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 246-271.
    6. Cheng, Qixiu & Lin, Yuqian & Zhou, Xuesong (Simon) & Liu, Zhiyuan, 2024. "Analytical formulation for explaining the variations in traffic states: A fundamental diagram modeling perspective with stochastic parameters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(1), pages 182-197.
    7. Zheng, Fangfang & Jabari, Saif Eddin & Liu, Henry X. & Lin, DianChao, 2018. "Traffic state estimation using stochastic Lagrangian dynamics," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 143-165.
    8. Qian, Wei-Liang & F. Siqueira, Adriano & F. Machado, Romuel & Lin, Kai & Grant, Ted W., 2017. "Dynamical capacity drop in a nonlinear stochastic traffic model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 328-339.
    9. Jin, Wen-Long, 2013. "A multi-commodity Lighthill–Whitham–Richards model of lane-changing traffic flow," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 361-377.
    10. Yidan Shangguan & Xuecheng Tian & Sheng Jin & Kun Gao & Xiaosong Hu & Wen Yi & Yu Guo & Shuaian Wang, 2023. "On the Fundamental Diagram for Freeway Traffic: Exploring the Lower Bound of the Fitting Error and Correcting the Generalized Linear Regression Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-15, August.
    11. Jin, Wen-Long, 2010. "A kinematic wave theory of lane-changing traffic flow," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(8-9), pages 1001-1021, September.
    12. Michael Z. F. Li, 2008. "A Generic Characterization of Equilibrium Speed-Flow Curves," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 220-235, May.
    13. Qu, Xiaobo & Wang, Shuaian & Zhang, Jin, 2015. "On the fundamental diagram for freeway traffic: A novel calibration approach for single-regime models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 91-102.
    14. Jin, Wen-Long, 2018. "Unifiable multi-commodity kinematic wave model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 639-659.
    15. Yeo, Hwasoo, 2008. "Asymmetric Microscopic Driving Behavior Theory," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1tn1m968, University of California Transportation Center.
    16. Juan Carlos Muñoz & Carlos F. Daganzo, 2003. "Structure of the Transition Zone Behind Freeway Queues," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 312-329, August.
    17. Yibing Wang & Long Wang & Xianghua Yu & Jingqiu Guo, 2023. "Capacity Drop at Freeway Ramp Merges with Its Replication in Macroscopic and Microscopic Traffic Simulations: A Tutorial Report," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-27, January.
    18. Wang, Haizhong & Li, Jia & Chen, Qian-Yong & Ni, Daiheng, 2011. "Logistic modeling of the equilibrium speed-density relationship," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 554-566, July.
    19. Storm, Pieter Jacob & Mandjes, Michel & van Arem, Bart, 2022. "Efficient evaluation of stochastic traffic flow models using Gaussian process approximation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 126-144.
    20. Mohammadian, Saeed & Zheng, Zuduo & Haque, Md. Mazharul & Bhaskar, Ashish, 2021. "Performance of continuum models for realworld traffic flows: Comprehensive benchmarking," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 132-167.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:150:y:2021:i:c:p:524-539. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.