IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v46y2012i8p1359-1371.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

To kill a real option – Incomplete contracts, real options and PPP

Author

Listed:
  • Krüger, Niclas A.

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the implications of public–private partnership agreements for the execution of expansion options in road infrastructure. More specifically, it analyzes the expansion of an existing two-lane road in Sweden, and examines the real options created by an intermediate type of road with three lanes. Interpreting the results from real option analysis in the light of incomplete contract theory, this paper finds that external congestion costs might necessitate public ownership to ensure a social optimal outcome in public–private partnerships.

Suggested Citation

  • Krüger, Niclas A., 2012. "To kill a real option – Incomplete contracts, real options and PPP," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1359-1371.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:8:p:1359-1371
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2012.04.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856412000730
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2012.04.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Bolton & Mathias Dewatripont, 2005. "Contract Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262025760, December.
    2. Oliver Hart & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "The Proper Scope of Government: Theory and an Application to Prisons," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1127-1161.
    3. Gil, Nuno, 2007. "On the value of project safeguards: Embedding real options in complex products and systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 980-999, September.
    4. S. Ping Ho & Liang Liu, 2002. "An option pricing-based model for evaluating the financial viability of privatized infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 143-156.
    5. Alonso-Conde, Ana Belen & Brown, Christine & Rojo-Suarez, Javier, 2007. "Public private partnerships: Incentives, risk transfer and real options," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 335-349.
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    7. Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Regan, Amelia C. & Ranaiefar, Fatemeh & Arkhipov, Dmitri I., 2011. "A network option portfolio management framework for adaptive transportation planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 765-778, October.
    8. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    9. Charles Cheah & Jicai Liu, 2006. "Valuing governmental support in infrastructure projects as real options using Monte Carlo simulation," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 545-554.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Song, Jinbo & Jin, Lulu & Zhao, Yunpeng & Hu, Wenjin, 2017. "Using bargaining-game model to negotiate compensation for the early termination of BOT highway projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 197-209.
    2. Marzouk, Mohamed & Ali, Mohamed, 2018. "Mitigating risks in wastewater treatment plant PPPs using minimum revenue guarantee and real options," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-133.
    3. Alejandro Ortega & Maria de los Angeles Baeza & Jose Manuel Vassallo, 2016. "Contractual PPPs for Transport Infrastructure in Spain: Lessons from the Economic Recession," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 187-206, March.
    4. Andersson, Henrik & Hultkrantz, Lars & Lindberg, Gunnar & Nilsson, Jan-Eric, 2017. "The role of economic analysis for investment priorities in Sweden’s transport sector," Working papers in Transport Economics 2017:12, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 23 May 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie & Neil Quigley, 2012. "Contemporary Microeconomic Foundations for the Structure and Management of the Public Sector," Treasury Working Paper Series 12/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elísio Brandão, 2013. "A Two-Factor Uncertainty Model to Determine the Optimal Contractual Penalty for a Build-Own-Transfer Project," CEF.UP Working Papers 1308, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, August.
    4. Ales S. Berk & Dejan Podhraski, 2018. "Superiority of Monte Carlo simulation in valuing real options within public–private partnerships," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
    5. Li, Zhi-Chun & Guo, Qian-Wen & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2015. "Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 318-340.
    6. Cvitanic, Jaksa & Radas, Sonja & Sikic, Hrvoje, 2011. "Co-development ventures: Optimal time of entry and profit-sharing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1710-1730, October.
    7. Lukas, Elmar & Thiergart, Sascha, 2019. "The interaction of debt financing, cash grants and the optimal investment policy under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 284-299.
    8. Sungchul Kim & Ronald Giachetti & Sangsung Park, 2018. "Real Options Analysis for Acquisition of New Technology: A Case Study of Korea K2 Tank’s Powerpack," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, October.
    9. Dezhi Zhang & Jiehui Jiang & Shuangyan Li & Xiamiao Li & Qingwen Zhan, 2017. "Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.
    10. Zihan Liu & Ju’e Guo & Shubin Wang & Hongtao Liu, 2018. "Government incentive strategies and private capital participation in China’s Shale gas development," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 51-64, January.
    11. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    12. Arve, Malin & Zwart, Gijsbert, 2023. "Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    14. Todd D. Gerarden & Richard G. Newell & Robert N. Stavins, 2017. "Assessing the Energy-Efficiency Gap," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1486-1525, December.
    15. Estrada, Isabel & de la Fuente, Gabriel & Martín-Cruz, Natalia, 2010. "Technological joint venture formation under the real options approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1185-1197, November.
    16. Kim, Amy M. & Li, Huanan, 2020. "Incorporating the impacts of climate change in transportation infrastructure decision models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 271-287.
    17. LOFGREN Asa & MILLOCK Katrin & NAUGES Céline, 2007. "Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments - An application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector," LERNA Working Papers 07.06.227, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    18. Song, Dandan & Wang, Huamao & Yang, Zhaojun, 2014. "Learning, pricing, timing and hedging of the option to invest for perpetual cash flows with idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-11.
    19. Birgitte Grøgaard & Asmund Rygh & Gabriel R. G. Benito, 2019. "Bringing corporate governance into internalization theory: State ownership and foreign entry strategies," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(8), pages 1310-1337, October.
    20. Wong, Kit Pong, 2008. "Does market demand volatility facilitate collusion?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 696-703, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:8:p:1359-1371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.