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Analyzing multiple COVID-19 outbreak impacts: A case study based on Chinese national air passenger flow

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  • Wang, Jinghua
  • Zhang, Zhao
  • Lu, Guangquan
  • Yu, Bin
  • Zhan, Chengyu
  • Cai, Jingsong

Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 results in a significant drop in traffic levels worldwide. Quantifying the impact of multiple COVID-19 outbreaks on traffic systems is critical to developing differentiated policies in the future. This paper proposes a novel COVID-19 multiple outbreak analysis method (NCMOA), dividing the impact scope and degree under multiple COVID-19 disturbances, and using the recovery rate and accumulated loss to quantify the impacts on air passenger flow. A case study based on Chinese national air traffic flow is executed, and the recovery patterns and the differentiated disturbances are analyzed. Results show that air passenger flow recovers with a similar pattern after the first outbreak, and subsequent outbreaks cause local effects and cannot affect the overall recovery pattern. Further, the heterogeneous influence factors and trends on the epi-centers (EC) and the nation are analyzed. In addition, the methods and results of this paper quantify the impact of COVID-19 on air passenger flow at a more detailed level under multiple disturbances. They could provide a basis for differentiated policy formulation of airlines and government in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jinghua & Zhang, Zhao & Lu, Guangquan & Yu, Bin & Zhan, Chengyu & Cai, Jingsong, 2023. "Analyzing multiple COVID-19 outbreak impacts: A case study based on Chinese national air passenger flow," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:169:y:2023:i:c:s096585642300006x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2023.103586
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    1. Randrianarisoa, Laingo M. & Gillen, David, 2023. "Policy responses and travellers’ preferences in pandemics: Evidence from Europe," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-316.

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