IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v175y2022ics0040162521007824.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global world (dis-)order? Analyzing the dynamic evolution of the micro-structure of multipolarism by means of an unsupervised neural network approach

Author

Listed:
  • Erspamer, Christopher
  • Della Torre, Francesca
  • Massini, Giulia
  • Ferilli, Guido
  • Sacco, Pier Luigi
  • Buscema, Paolo Massimo

Abstract

We make use of an advanced artificial neural network (Auto-CM) to model the structure of the current world order as a data-driven reconstruction of the implicit relationships between countries and of their time evolution, as derived from a database of publicly observable socioeconomic and political variables. Building on previous research, we analyze 93 variables derived from dozens of key indicators for 128 countries and trace their evolution along a period of eight years, 2007–2014. We find evidence of an increasing structural instability that seems to signal a transition toward a new, as yet undetermined, multipolar world order.

Suggested Citation

  • Erspamer, Christopher & Della Torre, Francesca & Massini, Giulia & Ferilli, Guido & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Buscema, Paolo Massimo, 2022. "Global world (dis-)order? Analyzing the dynamic evolution of the micro-structure of multipolarism by means of an unsupervised neural network approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:175:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521007824
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121351
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521007824
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121351?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miccichè, Salvatore & Bonanno, Giovanni & Lillo, Fabrizio & N. Mantegna, Rosario, 2003. "Degree stability of a minimum spanning tree of price return and volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 66-73.
    2. Buscema, Massimo & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2016. "MST Fitness Index and implicit data narratives: A comparative test on alternative unsupervised algorithms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 726-746.
    3. Andres Rodriguez-Pose, 2018. "The revenge of the places that don?t matter (and what to do about it)," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1805, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jan 2018.
    4. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Explaining Rare Events in International Relations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 693-715, July.
    5. Steger, Manfred B., 2017. "Globalization: A Very Short Introduction," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 4, number 9780198779551, Decembrie.
    6. Yiwei Wang, 2008. "Public Diplomacy and the Rise of Chinese Soft Power," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 616(1), pages 257-273, March.
    7. Jolyon Howorth, 2010. "The EU as a Global Actor: Grand Strategy for a Global Grand Bargain?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48, pages 455-474, June.
    8. David Turton, 1997. "War and ethnicity: Global connections and local violence in North East Africa and former Yugoslavia," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 77-94.
    9. Buscema, Massimo & Ferilli, Guido & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2017. "What kind of ‘world order’? An artificial neural networks approach to intensive data mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 46-56.
    10. Hampton, Mark P. & Christensen, John, 2002. "Offshore Pariahs? Small Island Economies, Tax Havens, and the Re-configuration of Global Finance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 1657-1673, September.
    11. Jolyon Howorth, 2010. "The EU as a Global Actor: Grand Strategy for a Global Grand Bargain?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 455-474, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pier Luigi Sacco & Alex Arenas & Manlio De Domenico, 2022. "The political economy of big data leaks: Uncovering the skeleton of tax evasion," Papers 2202.13417, arXiv.org.
    2. Kraus, Sascha & Kumar, Satish & Lim, Weng Marc & Kaur, Jaspreet & Sharma, Anuj & Schiavone, Francesco, 2023. "From moon landing to metaverse: Tracing the evolution of Technological Forecasting and Social Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Sacco, Pier Luigi & Arenas, Alex & De Domenico, Manlio, 2023. "The political economy of big data leaks: Uncovering the skeleton of tax evasion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Closa, 2011. "Institutional Innovation in the EU: The ‘Permanent’ Presidency of the European Council," Working Papers 1106, Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos (IPP), CSIC.
    2. Vivien Schmidt, 2010. "Democracy and Legitimacy in the European Union Revisited - Input, Output and Throughput," KFG Working Papers p0021, Free University Berlin.
    3. Chris J. Bickerton & Bastien Irondelle & Anand Menon, 2011. "Security Co‐operation beyond the Nation‐State: The EU's Common Security and Defence Policy," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Kalypso Nicolaϊdis, 2010. "The JCMS Annual Review Lecture Sustainable Integration: Towards EU 2.0?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(s1), pages 21-54, September.
    5. Stephan Keukeleire & Bas Hooijmaaijers, 2014. "The BRICS and Other Emerging Power Alliances and Multilateral Organizations in the Asia-Pacific and the Global South: Challenges for the European Union and Its View on Multilateralism," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 582-599, May.
    6. De Carlo, Manuela & Ferilli, Guido & d'Angella, Francesca & Buscema, Massimo, 2021. "Artificial intelligence to design collaborative strategy: An application to urban destinations," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 936-948.
    7. Pier Luigi Sacco & Alex Arenas & Manlio De Domenico, 2022. "The resilience of the multirelational structure of geopolitical treaties is critically linked to past colonial world order and offshore fiscal havens," Papers 2203.00618, arXiv.org.
    8. Trancoso, Tiago, 2014. "Emerging markets in the global economic network: Real(ly) decoupling?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 499-510.
    9. Frances Stewart, 2000. "Crisis Prevention: Tackling Horizontal Inequalities," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 245-262.
    10. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    11. Peng Yue & Qing Cai & Wanfeng Yan & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2020. "Information flow networks of Chinese stock market sectors," Papers 2004.08759, arXiv.org.
    12. Djauhari, Maman Abdurachman & Gan, Siew Lee, 2015. "Optimality problem of network topology in stocks market analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 108-114.
    13. Sandoval, Leonidas, 2014. "To lag or not to lag? How to compare indices of stock markets that operate on different times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 227-243.
    14. Bauluz, Luis & Bukowski, Pawel & Fransham, Mark & Lee, Annie Seong & López Forero, Margarita & Novokmet, Filip & Breau, Sébastien & Lee, Neil & Malgouyres, Clément & Schularick, Moritz & Verdugo, Greg, 2023. "Spatial wage inequality in North America and Western Europe: changes between and within local labour markets 1975-2019," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Joachim Wagner, 2005. "Der Noth gehorchend, nicht dem eignen Trieb Nascent Necessity and Opportunity Entrepreneurs in Germany Evidence from the Regional Entrepreneurship Monitor (REM)," Working Paper Series in Economics 10, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    16. Philip B. K. Potter, 2007. "Does Experience Matter?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(3), pages 351-378, June.
    17. Vincent Bouvatier & Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Anne-Laure Delatte, 2017. "Banks Defy Gravity in Tax Havens," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03101505, HAL.
    18. Joachim Wagner, 2005. "Nascent and infant entrepreneurs in Germany. Evidence from the Regional Entrepreneurship Monitor (REM)," Labor and Demography 0504010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Joachim Wagner, 2016. "Exports, Imports and Firm Survival: First Evidence for Manufacturing Enterprises in Germany," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Microeconometrics of International Trade, chapter 10, pages 341-367, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Andres Rodriguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Davila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-behind vs. unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline, and the rise of populism in the US and Europe," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2306, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Mar 2023.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:175:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521007824. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.