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Incumbent-led transitions and civil society: Autonomous vehicle policy and consumer organizations in the United States

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  • Hess, David J.

Abstract

The transition to connected and autonomous (or automated) vehicles (CAVs) in the United States is used to explore the role of civil society in the acceleration and deceleration of sociotechnical transitions. This is an “incumbent-led transition,” which occurs when large industrial corporations in one or more industries lead a systemic technological change. This type of transition may generate public concerns about risk and uncertainty, which can be expressed and mobilized by civil society organizations (CSOs). In turn, CSOs may also attempt to decelerate the transition process in order to develop better regulation and to change technology design. Based on an analysis of CSO statements in the public sphere and media reports on CAVs in the U.S., the political strategy of CSOs is examined to improve understanding of the role of civil society in incumbent-led transitions. The analysis indicates that the strategy includes four main aspects: articulating an alternative political goal (slower introduction of advanced autonomous vehicles and more rapid introduction of existing driver-assisted technology), engaging multiple targets or venues of action (different government units and the private sector), forming and expanding a broad coalition, and selecting effective tactics of influence (lobbying, media outreach, and research involving public opinion polls).

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  • Hess, David J., 2020. "Incumbent-led transitions and civil society: Autonomous vehicle policy and consumer organizations in the United States," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:151:y:2020:i:c:s0040162519300563
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119825
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    Cited by:

    1. Alvarez León, Luis F. & Aoyama, Yuko, 2022. "Industry emergence and market capture: The rise of autonomous vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    2. Md. Mokhlesur Rahman & Jean-Claude Thill, 2023. "What Drives People’s Willingness to Adopt Autonomous Vehicles? A Review of Internal and External Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-29, July.
    3. Dasom Lee & David J. Hess, 2022. "Public concerns and connected and automated vehicles: safety, privacy, and data security," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Medina-Molina, Cayetano & Pérez-Macías, Noemí & Fernández-Fernádez, José Luis, 2023. "The use of micromobility in different contexts. An explanation through the multilevel perspective and QCA," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Pel, Bonno & Raven, Rob & van Est, Rinie, 2020. "Transitions governance with a sense of direction: synchronization challenges in the case of the dutch ‘Driverless Car’ transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Löhr, Meike & Mattes, Jannika, 2022. "Facing transition phase two: Analysing actor strategies in a stagnating acceleration phase," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Su, Yu-Shan & Huang, Hsini & Daim, Tugrul & Chien, Pan-Wei & Peng, Ru-Ling & Karaman Akgul, Arzu, 2023. "Assessing the technological trajectory of 5G-V2X autonomous driving inventions: Use of patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Lee, Dasom & Hess, David J., 2020. "Regulations for on-road testing of connected and automated vehicles: Assessing the potential for global safety harmonization," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 85-98.

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