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Development trajectory and research themes of foresight

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  • Lu, Louis Y.Y.
  • Hsieh, Chih-Hung
  • Liu, John S.

Abstract

This study integrates the edge-betweenness clustering technique and key-route main path analysis to analyse the ‘broad foresight’ literature. We retrieve the relevant papers from the Thomson Reuters Web of Science databases and construct the citation network among them. The edge-betweenness clustering identifies six research groups in the ‘broad foresight’ literature. Three major research groups and their major research themes are ‘technology foresight’, ‘futures studies’, and ‘technology forecasting’. The other three are ‘scenario analysis’, ‘future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)’, and ‘technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA)’. We apply main path analysis to explore the overall development trajectory and the linkage among different research groups. We believe that the results are valuable for those who are interested in comprehending the overall development picture of ‘broad foresight’. The approach used herein is also applicable to other fields.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Louis Y.Y. & Hsieh, Chih-Hung & Liu, John S., 2016. "Development trajectory and research themes of foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 347-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:112:y:2016:i:c:p:347-356
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.07.040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Louis Y. Y. Lu & John S. Liu, 2013. "An innovative approach to identify the knowledge diffusion path: the case of resource-based theory," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 94(1), pages 225-246, January.
    2. Liu, John S. & Lu, Louis Y.Y. & Lu, Wen-Min & Lin, Bruce J.Y., 2013. "A survey of DEA applications," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 893-902.
    3. John S. Liu & Louis Y.Y. Lu, 2012. "An integrated approach for main path analysis: Development of the Hirsch index as an example," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(3), pages 528-542, March.
    4. Cagnin, Cristiano & Havas, Attila & Saritas, Ozcan, 2013. "Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 379-385.
    5. Lim, Dong-Joon & Anderson, Timothy R. & Inman, Oliver Lane, 2014. "Choosing effective dates from multiple optima in Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 91-97.
    6. Liu, John S. & Lu, Louis Y.Y. & Lu, Wen-Min & Lin, Bruce J.Y., 2013. "Data envelopment analysis 1978–2010: A citation-based literature survey," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-15.
    7. John S. Liu & Louis Y.Y. Lu, 2012. "An integrated approach for main path analysis: Development of the Hirsch index as an example," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(3), pages 528-542, March.
    8. Haegeman, Karel & Marinelli, Elisabetta & Scapolo, Fabiana & Ricci, Andrea & Sokolov, Alexander, 2013. "Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 386-397.
    9. Kwakkel, Jan H. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 419-431.
    10. Kerstin Cuhls, 2003. "From forecasting to foresight processes-new participative foresight activities in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 93-111.
    11. Ozcan Saritas & Serhat Burmaoglu, 2015. "The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(1), pages 497-508, October.
    12. Jan de Wilt & Barend van der Meulen & Hans Rutten, 2003. "Developing futures for agriculture in the Netherlands: a systematic exploration of the strategic value of foresight," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 219-233.
    13. Georghiou, Luke & Cassingena Harper, Jennifer, 2013. "Rising to the challenges—Reflections on Future-oriented Technology Analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 467-470.
    14. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
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