IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v62y2022icp1-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heavy industry priority development strategy and economic growth: The economic logic of the inverted-U theory and economic history explanation

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Hongtu
  • Xu, Baoliang
  • Zhao, Yan
  • Xu, Yonghui

Abstract

Based on the objective fact that new China had a weak industrial base during the planned economy period and the policies implemented, this paper constructs a dynamic optimization model that includes the labor-intensive goods sector, the capital-intensive goods sector, and the final goods sector. The basic conclusion of the theoretical model is that there is an inverted-U relationship between total social output per capita and the share of heavy industry capital stock on the optimal dynamic path of capital accumulation with government intervention, i.e., the relationship is positive until a specific threshold is reached, beyond which it becomes negative. The results of the benchmark regressions and endogeneity tests confirm the inverted-U relationship, although the threshold share of heavy industry capital stock differs among the empirical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Hongtu & Xu, Baoliang & Zhao, Yan & Xu, Yonghui, 2022. "Heavy industry priority development strategy and economic growth: The economic logic of the inverted-U theory and economic history explanation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:62:y:2022:i:c:p:1-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2022.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X22000595
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.04.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lin, Justin Yifu, 2003. "Development Strategy, Viability, and Economic Convergence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(2), pages 276-308, January.
    2. Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
    3. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    4. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Wei Li & Dennis Tao Yang, 2005. "The Great Leap Forward: Anatomy of a Central Planning Disaster," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 840-877, August.
    6. Ciccone, Antonio & Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1996. "Start-up costs and pecuniary externalities as barriers to economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-59, April.
    7. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    8. Yingyi Qian & Chenggang Xu, 1993. "Why China's economic reforms differ: the M‐form hierarchy and entry/expansion of the non‐state sector," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 1(2), pages 135-170, June.
    9. YAO Yang & ZHENG Dongya, 2007. "Externalities and development of heavy industry," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 2(4), pages 467-489, December.
    10. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler & Jonathan Temple, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Papers 2001-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    11. Xiaodong Zhu, 2012. "Understanding China's Growth: Past, Present, and Future," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 103-124, Fall.
    12. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    13. Zhang, Tao & Zou, Heng-fu, 1998. "Fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 221-240, February.
    14. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qu, Guangjun & Sylwester, Kevin & Wang, Feng, 2016. "Anticorruption and Growth: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 72190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andrea Filippetti & Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Decentralization and economic growth reconsidered: The role of regional authority," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(8), pages 1793-1824, December.
    3. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    4. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    6. Qu, Guangjun & Sylwester, Kevin & Wang, Feng, 2018. "Anticorruption and growth: Evidence from China," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 373-390.
    7. Max Kohler & Stefan Sperlich & Jisu Yoon, 2019. "A Varying Coefficient Model for Assessing the Returns to Growth to Account for Poverty and Inequality," Papers 1903.02390, arXiv.org.
    8. Carlos Usabiaga & E. Macarena Hernández-Salmerón, 2016. "Regional Growth and Convergence in Spain: Is the Decentralization Model Important?," EcoMod2016 9358, EcoMod.
    9. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    10. Xiaowen Xie, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Poverty Reduction: A Study Based on System GMM in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-20, September.
    11. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Governance, capital flight and industrialisation in Africa," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    12. Ying Xu, 2009. "How does financial system efficiency affect the growth impact of FDI in China?," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 383, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Fernando Mayoral & Carlos Garcimartín, 2013. "The impact of population on the reduction of steady-state disparities across Spanish regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 50(1), pages 49-69, February.
    14. Zheng, Xinye & Li, Fanghua & Song, Shunfeng & Yu, Yihua, 2013. "Central government's infrastructure investment across Chinese regions: A dynamic spatial panel data approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 264-276.
    15. Martin Andersson & Hans Lööf, 2009. "Learning‐by‐Exporting Revisited: The Role of Intensity and Persistence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 893-916, December.
    16. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2018. "Increasing Foreign Aid for Inclusive Human Development in Africa," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(2), pages 443-466, July.
    17. Bobba, Matteo & Coviello, Decio, 2007. "Weak instruments and weak identification, in estimating the effects of education, on democracy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 301-306, September.
    18. Delpeuch, Claire & Leblois, Antoine, 2014. "The Elusive Quest for Supply Response to Cash-Crop Market Reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Cotton," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 521-537.
    19. Ndoya, Hermann & Okere, Donald & Belomo, Marie laure & Atangana, Melissa, 2023. "Does ICTs decrease the spread of informal economy in Africa?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    20. Shrabani Saha & Kunal Sen, 2019. "The corruption-growth relationship: Do political institutions matter?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heavy industry priority development strategy; Economic growth; Inverted-U theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • P21 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:62:y:2022:i:c:p:1-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.