IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v47y2018icp155-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On using dynamic IO models with layers of techniques to measure value added in global value chains

Author

Listed:
  • Gurgul, Henryk
  • Lach, Łukasz

Abstract

We propose a new approach to forecasting the future paths of value-added-related indexes in the framework of global value chains (GVCs) in a global input-output model. The proposed methodology may be applied to different groups of counties and sectors in a global IO framework under various scenarios regarding technological progress. In an illustrative empirical case study, we focus on four groups of economies and seven groups of sectors. The preliminary results suggest that the East Asian economies, AUNAFTA, and the EU countries are expected to improve the efficiency in building their comparative advantage within the GVC framework, while the largest developing economies are not.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2018. "On using dynamic IO models with layers of techniques to measure value added in global value chains," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 155-170.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:47:y:2018:i:c:p:155-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2018.07.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X17302345
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.07.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pan, Haoran, 2006. "Dynamic and endogenous change of input-output structure with specific layers of technology," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 200-223, June.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    3. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2013. "Fragmentation, incomes and jobs: an analysis of European competitiveness [Who captures value in global supply chains?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(76), pages 613-661.
    4. Marcel Timmer & Abdul A. Erumban & Reitze Gouma & Bart Los & Umed Temurshoev & Gaaitzen J. de Vries & I–aki Arto & Valeria Andreoni AurŽlien Genty & Frederik Neuwahl & JosŽ M. Rueda?Cantuche & Joseph , 2012. "The World Input-Output Database (WIOD): Contents, Sources and Methods," IIDE Discussion Papers 20120401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    5. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    6. De Backer, Koen & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2014. "Mapping global value chains," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 37176.
    7. Dalia Marin, 2011. "The Opening Up of Eastern Europe at 20: Jobs, Skills and Reverse Maquiladoras in Austria and Germany," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume II, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Trefler, Daniel & Zhu, Susan Chun, 2010. "The structure of factor content predictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 195-207, November.
    9. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2016. "Simulating evolution of interindustry linkages in endogenous dynamic IO model with layers of techniques," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(4), pages 632-666, November.
    10. Ronald E. Miller, 1966. "Interregional Feedback Effects In Input‐Output Models: Some Preliminary Results," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 105-125, January.
    11. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2016. "Comparative advantage of the EU in global value chains: How important and efficient are new EU members in transition?," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 17(1), pages 21-58.
    12. Robert C. Feenstra, 2010. "Offshoring in the Global Economy: Microeconomic Structure and Macroeconomic Implications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262013835, December.
    13. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & ?kos Valentinyi, 2013. "Two Perspectives on Preferences and Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2752-2789, December.
    14. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2011. "Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 308-312, May.
    15. Miguel angel Tarancon & Fernando Callejas & Erik Dietzenbacher & Michael Lahr, 2008. "A Revision of the Tolerable Limits Approach: Searching for the Important Coefficients," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 75-95.
    16. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Marcel Timmer & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2013. "The Construction Of World Input-Output Tables In The Wiod Project," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-98, March.
    17. Bart Los & Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "How Global Are Global Value Chains? A New Approach To Measure International Fragmentation," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 66-92, January.
    18. Andrew Brody, 1966. "A Simplified Growth Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(1), pages 137-146.
    19. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grodzicki, Maciej J. & Skrzypek, Jurand, 2020. "Cost-competitiveness and structural change in value chains – vertically-integrated analysis of the European automotive sector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 276-287.
    2. Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Ting & Li, Hangyu & Zhang, Han, 2022. "Dynamic spillover capacity of R&D and digital investments in China's manufacturing industry under long-term technological progress based on the industry chain perspective," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Araújo, Inácio Fernandes de & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues, 2021. "Regional and global patterns of participation in value chains: Evidence from Brazil," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 154-171.
    4. Chen, Quanrun & Chen, Xikang & Pei, Jiansuo & Yang, Cuihong & Zhu, Kunfu, 2020. "Estimating domestic content in China’s exports: Accounting for a dual-trade regime," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-54.
    5. Zhiheng Wu & Guisheng Hou & Baogui Xin, 2020. "Has the Belt and Road Initiative Brought New Opportunities to Countries Along the Routes to Participate in Global Value Chains?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440209, January.
    6. Qingqing Cai & Li Li, 2022. "Path Selection and Optimization of Chinese Manufacturing Industry Participating in Global Value Chain Reconstruction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2016. "Comparative advantage of the EU in global value chains: How important and efficient are new EU members in transition?," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 17(1), pages 21-58.
    2. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    3. João Lopes & Ana Santos, 2015. "Vertical Specialization, Global Value Chains and the changing Geography of Trade: the Portuguese Rubber and Plastics Industry Case," Proceedings of Business and Management Conferences 3105028, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    4. Michael Peneder & Gerhard Streicher, 2016. "De- versus Re-industrialisation: Is Structural Change Reversible?," WIFO Working Papers 506, WIFO.
    5. Marcel P Timmer & Sébastien Miroudot & Gaaitzen J de Vries, 2019. "Functional specialisation in trade," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30.
    6. Benkovskis Konstantins & Wörz Julia, 2018. "“Made in China”: how does it affect our understanding of global market shares?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-26, June.
    7. Los, Bart & Timmer, Marcel P. & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2015. "How important are exports for job growth in China? A demand side analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 19-32.
    8. Kaltenegger, Oliver & Löschel, Andreas & Pothen, Frank, 2017. "The effect of globalisation on energy footprints: Disentangling the links of global value chains," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 148-168.
    9. Chen, Quanrun & Chen, Xikang & Pei, Jiansuo & Yang, Cuihong & Zhu, Kunfu, 2020. "Estimating domestic content in China’s exports: Accounting for a dual-trade regime," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-54.
    10. Reshef, Ariell & Santoni, Gianluca, 2023. "Are your labor shares set in Beijing? The view through the lens of global value chains," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    11. Nenci, Silvia & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Giunta, Anna & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2022. "Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(2), July.
    12. João Amador & Rita Cappariello & Robert Stehrer, 2015. "Global Value Chains: A View from the Euro Area," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 99-120, June.
    13. Sasahara, Akira, 2019. "Explaining the employment effect of exports: Value-added content matters," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-21.
    14. Kaplan, Lennart C. & Kohl, Tristan & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2016. "The effects of the CEECS's accession on sectoral trade: A value added perspective," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 272, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    15. Zheng, Haitao & Fang, Qi & Wang, Cheng & Jiang, Yunyun & Ren, Ruoen, 2018. "Updating China's input-output tables series using MTT method and its comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 186-193.
    16. LOPES, Joao Carlos & SANTOS, Ana, 2016. "Vertical Specialization, Global Value Chains And International Trade: The Rubber And Plastics Industry In Portugal And Comparison With Northern And Southern Eu Countries," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(2), pages 15-28.
    17. Vrh, Nataša, 2015. "Pay-off to Participation in Global Value Chains: How Much are New EU Member States Lagging behind the Rest of EU Countries in Terms of Domestic Value Added in Exports?," MPRA Paper 67805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kozo Kiyota & Keita Oikawa & Katsuhiro Yoshioka, 2017. "The Global Value Chain and the Competitiveness of Asian Countries," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(3), pages 257-281, Fall.
    19. Marta Solaz, 2018. "Value added and participation in global value chains: The case of Spain," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2804-2827, October.
    20. Oliver Schenker & Simon Koesler & Andreas Löschel, 2018. "On the effects of unilateral environmental policy on offshoring in multi‐stage production processes," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(4), pages 1221-1256, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous dynamics; World input-output data; Global value chains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:47:y:2018:i:c:p:155-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.