Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

On forecasting SETAR processes

Contents:

Author Info

  • De Gooijer, Jan G.
  • De Bruin, Paul T.

Abstract

Suppose a time series {Yt} is generated by a first-order stationary self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model with Gaussian innovations. The minimum mean squared error h-step ahead forecast for h> 2 involves a sequence of complicated numerical integrations and closed-form expressions are very difficult or even impossible to obtain. In this paper we derive explicit approximate expressions for E[Yt+hYs; s [less-than-or-equals, slant] t] and Var[Yt+hYs; s [less-than-or-equals, slant] t] (h> 2) for various SETAR models. The approximations are reasonably accurate as compared with alternative methods based on numerical integration and Monte Carlo experiments.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V1D-3SYVG23-2/2/c8fb05425360af16803b83ce6977aaec
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Statistics & Probability Letters.

Volume (Year): 37 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 7-14

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:37:y:1998:i:1:p:7-14

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description

Order Information:
Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
Web: https://shop.elsevier.com/order?id=505573&ref=505573_01_ooc_1&version=01

Related research

Keywords: Nonlinear time series Monte Carlo Normality Self-exciting threshold autoregressive process;

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  2. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 598, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Dec 2005.
  3. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2003. "A SETAR model for Canadian GDP: non-linearities and forecast comparisons," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(18), pages 1957-1964.
  4. Perez-Rodriguez, Jorge V. & Torra, Salvador & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 2005. "STAR and ANN models: forecasting performance on the Spanish "Ibex-35" stock index," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 490-509, June.
  5. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "Is there an Optimal Forecast Combination? A Stochastic Dominance Approach to Forecast Combination Puzzle," Working Paper Series 17_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  6. Li, Jing, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 320-332, April.
  7. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2011. "Modeling and Forecasting Interval Time Series with Threshold Models: An Application to S&P500 Index Returns," Working Papers w201128, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:37:y:1998:i:1:p:7-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.