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General dynamic term structures under default risk

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  • Fontana, Claudio
  • Schmidt, Thorsten

Abstract

We consider the problem of modelling the term structure of defaultable bonds, under minimal assumptions on the default time. In particular, we do not assume the existence of a default intensity and we therefore allow for the possibility of default at predictable times. It turns out that this requires the introduction of an additional term in the forward rate approach by Heath et al. (1992). This term is driven by a random measure encoding information about those times where default can happen with positive probability. In this framework, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for a reference probability measure to be a local martingale measure for the large financial market of credit risky bonds, also considering general recovery schemes.

Suggested Citation

  • Fontana, Claudio & Schmidt, Thorsten, 2018. "General dynamic term structures under default risk," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 128(10), pages 3353-3386.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spapps:v:128:y:2018:i:10:p:3353-3386
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spa.2017.11.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Jos'e A. Salmer'on & Giulia Di Nunno & Bernardo D'Auria, 2022. "Before and after default: information and optimal portfolio via anticipating calculus," Papers 2208.07163, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    2. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Thorsten Schmidt, 2022. "Term structure modelling with overnight rates beyond stochastic continuity," Papers 2202.00929, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    3. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Sandrine Gumbel & Thorsten Schmidt, 2018. "Term structure modeling for multiple curves with stochastic discontinuities," Papers 1810.09882, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    4. Antonella Calzolari & Barbara Torti, 2022. "A Note on the Strong Predictable Representation Property and Enlargement of Filtration," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-12, May.
    5. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Sandrine Gümbel & Thorsten Schmidt, 2020. "Term structure modelling for multiple curves with stochastic discontinuities," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 465-511, April.
    6. Tolulope Fadina & Thorsten Schmidt, 2019. "Default Ambiguity," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Salmerón Garrido, José Antonio & Nunno, Giulia Di & D'Auria, Bernardo, 2022. "Before and after default: information and optimal portfolio via anticipating calculus," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 35411, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Bandini, Elena & Calvia, Alessandro & Colaneri, Katia, 2022. "Stochastic filtering of a pure jump process with predictable jumps and path-dependent local characteristics," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 396-435.

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