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Dutch COVID-19 lockdown measures increased trust in government and trust in science: A difference-in-differences analysis

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  • Oude Groeniger, Joost
  • Noordzij, Kjell
  • van der Waal, Jeroen
  • de Koster, Willem

Abstract

Many governments have implemented strict lockdown measures to prevent the transmission of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Compliance with these restrictions is vital and depends greatly on the level of trust in the institutions central to their development and implementation. The objectives of this study were to assess: (1) the effects of the Dutch lockdown measures imposed in March 2020 on trust in government and trust in science; and (2) whether these differ across social groups. We draw on unique data from the high-quality Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences panel, which comprises a true probability sample of Dutch households (average participation rate: 80.4%). Our data were collected on an ongoing basis from December 2017 to March 2020 (n = 2219). Using the implementation of lockdown measures in mid-March as a natural experiment, we employed difference-in-differences analyses to assess the causal effect of the Dutch lockdown measures on trust in government and trust in science. We estimated that the imposition of the measures caused an 18% increase (95% confidence interval (CI):15%–21%)) in trust in government and a 6% increase (95% CI: 4%–8%) in trust in science. The impact on trust in government was greater among the participants aged 65 and older and those with poor self-assessed health, although the relevant CIs were wide and, in the case of self-assessed health, included the null. No differential effects were observed for trust in science. Our study indicates that the strict public-health measures imposed in the Netherlands during an acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic generated trust in the institutions involved in drafting and implementing them, especially among those with a higher risk of serious health outcomes. This suggests that, to prevent a major public-health crisis, people appreciate firm government intervention during the acute phase of an infectious disease pandemic.

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  • Oude Groeniger, Joost & Noordzij, Kjell & van der Waal, Jeroen & de Koster, Willem, 2021. "Dutch COVID-19 lockdown measures increased trust in government and trust in science: A difference-in-differences analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:275:y:2021:i:c:s0277953621001519
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113819
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    1. Journal round-up: Social Science & Medicine 275
      by Will Sullivan in The Academic Health Economists' Blog on 2021-05-10 06:00:13

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    2. Yuan, Hang & Long, Qinyi & Huang, Guanglv & Huang, Liqin & Luo, Siyang, 2022. "Different roles of interpersonal trust and institutional trust in COVID-19 pandemic control," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    3. Michiel Bijlsma & Carin Cruijsen & Jester Koldijk, 2022. "Determinants of Trust in Banks’ Payment Services During COVID: An Exploration Using Daily Data," De Economist, Springer, vol. 170(2), pages 231-256, May.
    4. Koen Zwet & Ana I. Barros & Tom M. Engers & Peter M. A. Sloot, 2022. "Emergence of protests during the COVID-19 pandemic: quantitative models to explore the contributions of societal conditions," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Anna Rita Graziani & Lucia Botindari & Michela Menegatti & Silvia Moscatelli, 2023. "Adaptive Coping Strategies at the Time of COVID-19: The Role of Social and General Trust," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(15), pages 1-19, August.
    6. van der Cruijsen, Carin & de Haan, Jakob & Jonker, Nicole, 2022. "Has the COVID-19 pandemic affected public trust? Evidence for the US and the Netherlands," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1010-1024.
    7. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2022. "Covid-19 vaccination, fear and anxiety: Evidence from Google search trends," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    8. Daicia Price & Tore Bonsaksen & Mary Ruffolo & Janni Leung & Vivian Chiu & Hilde Thygesen & Mariyana Schoultz & Amy Ostertun Geirdal, 2021. "Perceived Trust in Public Authorities Nine Months after the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Cross-National Study," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Alistair Cole & Julien S. Baker & Dionysios Stivas, 2021. "Trust, Transparency and Transnational Lessons from COVID-19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Daryna Grechyna, 2023. "Elections and Policies: Evidence from the Covid Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 10544, CESifo.
    11. Kellner, Adrian & Martinussen, Pål Erling & Feiring, Eli, 2023. "Don't stand so close to me: Perceptions of others’ compliance with COVID-19 recommendations and support for strict policy measures in Norway," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Fortuna Casoria & Fabio Galeotti & Marie Claire Villeval, 2023. "Trust and social preferences in times of acute health crisis," Working Papers 2304, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    13. Jinho Kim & Sujeong Park & S. V. Subramanian & Taehoon Kim, 2023. "The Psychological Costs of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Heterogeneous Effects in South Korea: Evidence from a Difference-in-Differences Analysis," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 455-476, February.
    14. Liu, Ning & Bao, Guoxian & Wu, Shaolong, 2023. "Social implications of Covid-19: Its impact on general trust, political trust, and trust in physicians in China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    15. Per G. Fredriksson & Aatishya Mohanty, 2022. "COVID-19 Regulations, Political Institutions, and the Environment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 81(2), pages 323-353, February.
    16. Ben Davies & Fanny Lalot & Linus Peitz & Maria S. Heering & Hilal Ozkececi & Jacinta Babaian & Kaya Davies Hayon & Jo Broadwood & Dominic Abrams, 2021. "Changes in political trust in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: integrated public opinion evidence and implications," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.

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