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Analysis and short-term predictions of non-technical loss of electric power based on mixed effects models

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  • Simões, Paulo Fernando Mahaz
  • Souza, Reinaldo Castro
  • Calili, Rodrigo Flora
  • Pessanha, José Francisco Moreira

Abstract

In this paper we estimate, analyze and predict short-term non-technical loss (NTL) of electric power of Brazilian energy service companies based on different assumptions for the covariance structure of the errors and controlling for socio-economic confounding variables. Although the correlation among repeated responses is not usually of intrinsic interest, it is an important aspect of the data that must properly be accounted for to produce valid inferences in longitudinal or panel data analysis. In the extended linear mixed effects model, the covariance matrix of the response vector is comprised by two subcomponents, a random effect component that can represent between group variation and a intraclass or within group component. So, in order to adequately treat the longitudinal character of NTL data, we use the decomposition of these variance components to evaluate different architectures to the within group errors. Using data of 59 Brazilian distributing utilities from 2004 to 2012, we fit a conditionally independent errors model and three other models with autoregressive-moving average parametrization to the intraclass disturbances. Finally, we compare models using the MAD and MAPE metrics in the prediction of NTL for the year of 2013. The findings suggest that the approach can be satisfactorily implemented in future statistical analysis of NTL.

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  • Simões, Paulo Fernando Mahaz & Souza, Reinaldo Castro & Calili, Rodrigo Flora & Pessanha, José Francisco Moreira, 2020. "Analysis and short-term predictions of non-technical loss of electric power based on mixed effects models," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:71:y:2020:i:c:s0038012119301910
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2020.100804
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    1. Savian, Fernando de Souza & Siluk, Julio Cezar Mairesse & Garlet, Taís Bisognin & do Nascimento, Felipe Moraes & Pinheiro, José Renes & Vale, Zita, 2021. "Non-technical losses: A systematic contemporary article review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    2. Ivan Pavičić & Ninoslav Holjevac & Igor Ivanković & Dalibor Brnobić, 2021. "Model for 400 kV Transmission Line Power Loss Assessment Using the PMU Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Daniel Leite & José Pessanha & Paulo Simões & Rodrigo Calili & Reinaldo Souza, 2020. "A Stochastic Frontier Model for Definition of Non-Technical Loss Targets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Cardoso de Mendonça, Mário Jorge & Pereira, Amaro Olimpio & Medrano, Luis Alberto & Pessanha, José Francisco M., 2021. "Analysis of electric distribution utilities efficiency levels by stochastic frontier in Brazilian power sector," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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