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Risky choices in a natural experiment from Turkey: Var Mısın Yok Musun?

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  • Elgin, Ceyhun
  • Torul, Orhan
  • Aydoğdu, Ertunç

Abstract

In this paper, we study high-stakes risky choices of contestants in the Turkish edition of the popular TV game show Deal or No Deal. We conduct a large-scale replication of Post, Van den Assem, Baltussen, and Thaler (2008), and we investigate contestant behavior in Turkey in detail via the expected utility and cumulative prospect theory. We find strong empirical support on the role of path dependence in shaping risk attitudes: Turkish contestants who enjoy early gains or suffer early losses in the initial rounds of the game are more risk-lover than other contestants, which aligns well with the break-even and house-money effects à la Thaler and Johnson (1990). We also document that the cumulative prospect theory predicts contestant behavior better than the expected utility theory empirically. Finally, we demonstrate that risk aversion exhibits sizable heterogeneity over demographics, and female and university-graduate contestants are more risk-averse than their male and less-educated counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Elgin, Ceyhun & Torul, Orhan & Aydoğdu, Ertunç, 2021. "Risky choices in a natural experiment from Turkey: Var Mısın Yok Musun?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:92:y:2021:i:c:s2214804321000252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2021.101685
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk aversion; Expected utility theory; Cumulative prospect theory; Path dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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