IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v41y2016icp40-52.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Laffer curves, population growth and public debt overhangs

Author

Listed:
  • Tsuchiya, Yoichi

Abstract

This paper extends the Ireland (1994) model to incorporate population growth and examines a dynamic effect of a tax reduction on a long-run government budget. We find evidence suggesting that the dynamic effect of a tax cut improves the government budget situation in the long-run. Our numerical analysis suggests that a population growth rate consistent with the U.S. economy has positive effects on a long-run government budget. It is likely that low population growth leads to the deterioration of a long-run government budget. However, dynamic Laffer curves fail to arise incorporating a moderate initial debt level into the model. Furthermore, a public debt overhangs experiment casts doubt on the dynamic Laffer curves.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Dynamic Laffer curves, population growth and public debt overhangs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 40-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:41:y:2016:i:c:p:40-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.10.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056015001495
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2015.10.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl & Danny Yagan, 2009. "Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 147-174, Fall.
    3. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    5. Leeper, Eric M. & Yang, Shu-Chun Susan, 2008. "Dynamic scoring: Alternative financing schemes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-2), pages 159-182, February.
    6. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 1993. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 631-649.
    7. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    8. Agell, Jonas & Persson, Mats, 2001. "On the analytics of the dynamic Laffer curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 397-414, October.
    9. Philippe Weil, 1987. "Love Thy Children," Post-Print hal-03393237, HAL.
    10. Novales, Alfonso & Ruiz, Jesus, 2002. "Dynamic Laffer curves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 181-206, December.
    11. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 126-150, October.
    12. Basil Dalamagas, 1998. "Endogenous growth and the dynamic Laffer curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 63-75.
    13. Pecorino, Paul, 1995. "Tax rates and tax revenues in a model of growth through human capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 527-539, December.
    14. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
    15. Feldstein, Martin, 1986. "Supply Side Economics: Old Truths and New Claims," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 26-30, May.
    16. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weinzierl, Matthew, 2006. "Dynamic scoring: A back-of-the-envelope guide," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1415-1433, September.
    17. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2012. "Laffer strikes again: Dynamic scoring of capital taxes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1180-1199.
    18. Bruce, Neil & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1999. "Budget Balance, Welfare, and the Growth Rate: "Dynamic Scoring" of the Long-Run Government Budget," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 162-186, May.
    19. Alan J. Auerbach, 2005. "Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 421-425, May.
    20. Ming Chang & Hsiao-Ping Peng, 2012. "Laffer effect, gross substitution, marginal cost of public funds and the level property of public good provision," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(5), pages 650-659, October.
    21. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
    22. Weil, Philippe, 1987. "Love thy children : Reflections on the Barro debt neutrality theorem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-391, May.
    23. Ferede Ergete, 2008. "Dynamic Scoring in the Ramsey Growth Model," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, September.
    24. Ireland, Peter N., 1994. "Supply-side economics and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 559-571, June.
    25. von Hagen, Jurgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign Risk Premia in the European Bond Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8711 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "Tax rate, government revenue and economic performance: A perspective of Laffer curve," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Menichini, Amilcar A., 2020. "How do firm characteristics affect the corporate income tax revenue?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 146-162.
    3. Mario Coccia, 2018. "National debts and government deficits within European Monetary Union: Statistical evidence of economic issues," Papers 1806.07830, arXiv.org.
    4. Coccia, Mario, 2017. "Asymmetric paths of public debts and of general government deficits across countries within and outside the European monetary unification and economic policy of debt dissolution," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 17-31.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferede Ergete, 2008. "Dynamic Scoring in the Ramsey Growth Model," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, September.
    2. van Oudheusden, P., 2012. "Dynamic Scoring Through Creative Destruction," Discussion Paper 2012-084, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. van Oudheusden, P., 2012. "Dynamic Scoring Through Creative Destruction," Other publications TiSEM 13955715-2cbb-443b-a099-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Marcelo Bianconi & Walter H. Fisher, 2014. "Intertemporal Budget Policies and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Indebted Open Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 116-130, February.
    5. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(3), pages 697-723, January.
    6. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer-Style Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 697-723, January.
    7. repec:wly:soecon:v:81:3:y:2015:p:697-723 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Leeper, Eric M. & Yang, Shu-Chun Susan, 2008. "Dynamic scoring: Alternative financing schemes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-2), pages 159-182, February.
    9. Alejandro Cunat & Szabolcs Deak & Marco Maffezzoli, 2022. "Tax Cuts in Open Economies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 83-108, July.
    10. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2012. "Laffer strikes again: Dynamic scoring of capital taxes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1180-1199.
    11. van Oudheusden, P., 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reforms and Dynamic Laffer Effects," Discussion Paper 2010-15, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Juha Tervala & Mr. Giovanni Ganelli, 2008. "Tax Reforms, “Free Lunches”, and “Cheap Lunches” in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 2008/227, International Monetary Fund.
    13. van Oudheusden, P., 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reforms and Dynamic Laffer Effects," Other publications TiSEM 9333f615-5bd1-4105-994a-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Xiaoshan Chen & Campbell Leith & Matta Ricci, 2018. "Debt Sustainability and Welfare along an Optimal Laffer Curve," Working Papers 2018_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    15. Mathias Trabandt & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "How Far Are We From The Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    16. Agell, Jonas & Persson, Mats, 2001. "On the analytics of the dynamic Laffer curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 397-414, October.
    17. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weinzierl, Matthew, 2006. "Dynamic scoring: A back-of-the-envelope guide," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1415-1433, September.
    18. Fernández, Esther & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2010. "Double dividend, dynamic Laffer effects and public abatement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 656-665, May.
    19. Menichini, Amilcar A., 2020. "How do firm characteristics affect the corporate income tax revenue?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 146-162.
    20. M Saifur Rahman, 2008. "Should Dynamic Scoring be done with Heterogeneous Agent-Based Models? Challenging the Conventional Wisdom," CAEPR Working Papers 2008-023, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    21. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Laffer curve; Dynamic scoring; Taxation; Population; Debt management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:41:y:2016:i:c:p:40-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.