IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/retrec/v20y2007i1p119-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rail Passenger Demand Forecasting: Cross-Sectional Models Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Wardman, Mark
  • Lythgoe, William
  • Whelan, Gerard

Abstract

This chapter revisits cross-sectional models of rail travel demand, a much neglected area in recent years, by covering three developments in the context of inter-urban travel. First, the models are extended to allow a detailed analysis of catchment areas; the ticket-sales data that are used to estimate these models only cover journeys between stations. Second, access to and egress from stations are investigated by refining functions of population and accessibility to stations separately from rail service quality. The best models are achieved with inverted s-shaped access and egress functions rather than assuming constant elasticity. Third, station choice is modeled using a multinomial logit model that yields fresh insights into rail travel demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Wardman, Mark & Lythgoe, William & Whelan, Gerard, 2007. "Rail Passenger Demand Forecasting: Cross-Sectional Models Revisited," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 119-152, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:20:y:2007:i:1:p:119-152
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739-8859(07)20005-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Wardman & Jonathan Tyler, 2000. "Rail network accessibility and the demand for inter-urban rail travel," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 3-24, January.
    2. Mudit Kulsreshtha & Barnali Nag, 2000. "Structure and dynamics of non-suburban passenger travel demand in Indian railways," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 221-241, May.
    3. Coto-Millán, Pablo & Baños-Pino, José & Inglada, Vicente, 1997. "Marshallian demands of intercity passenger transport in Spain: 1980-1992. An economic analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 79-96, June.
    4. Wardman, Mark, 1997. "Inter-urban rail demand, elasticities and competition in Great Britain: Evidence from direct demand models," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 15-28, March.
    5. Daniel Van Vuuren & Piet Rietveld, 2002. "The Off-peak Demand for Train Kilometres and Train Tickets: A Microeconometric Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 49-72, January.
    6. Wardman, Mark, 2006. "Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 129-148, May.
    7. Rolle, Jean-Daniel, 1997. "Estimation of Swiss railway demand with computation of elasticities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 117-127, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Blainey, Simon, 2010. "Trip end models of local rail demand in England and Wales," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 153-165.
    2. Hu, Xinlei & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Ni, Linglin & Shi, Feng, 2022. "The impact of intercity economic complementarity on HSR volume in the context of megalopolization," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Givoni, Moshe & Rietveld, Piet, 2014. "Do cities deserve more railway stations? The choice of a departure railway station in a multiple-station region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-97.
    4. Blainey, Simon P. & Preston, John M., 2013. "A GIS-based appraisal framework for new local railway stations and services," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 41-51.
    5. Federico Cavallaro & Francesco Bruzzone & Silvio Nocera, 2023. "Effects of high-speed rail on regional accessibility," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(5), pages 1685-1721, October.
    6. Robenek, Tomáš & Azadeh, Shadi Sharif & Maknoon, Yousef & de Lapparent, Matthieu & Bierlaire, Michel, 2018. "Train timetable design under elastic passenger demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 19-38.
    7. Rahman, Syed & Balijepalli, Chandra, 2016. "Understanding the determinants of demand for public transport: Evidence from suburban rail operations in five divisions of Indian Railways," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 13-22.
    8. Simon P. Blainey & John Armstrong & Andrew S. J. Smith & John M. Preston, 2016. "New routes on old railways: increasing rail’s mode share within the constraints of the existing railway network," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 425-442, May.
    9. F. Cerina & L. Cocco & K. Mannaro & M. Marchesi & F. Pigliaru, 2020. "Insularity and the development of a local railway network," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 683-702, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahern, Aoife A. & Tapley, Nigel, 2008. "The use of stated preference techniques to model modal choices on interurban trips in Ireland," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 15-27, January.
    2. Hu, Xinlei & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara) & Ni, Linglin & Shi, Feng, 2022. "The impact of intercity economic complementarity on HSR volume in the context of megalopolization," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Chen, Mu-Chen & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Exploring time variants for short-term passenger flow," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 488-498.
    4. W. Lythgoe & M. Wardman, 2004. "Modelling passenger demand for parkway rail stations," Transportation, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 125-151, May.
    5. Robenek, Tomáš & Azadeh, Shadi Sharif & Maknoon, Yousef & de Lapparent, Matthieu & Bierlaire, Michel, 2018. "Train timetable design under elastic passenger demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 19-38.
    6. X. D'Haultfoeuille & P. Fevrier & L. Wilner, 2012. "Demand Estimation in the Presence of Revenue Management," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2012-13, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    7. Xavier D'Haultf{oe}uille & Ao Wang & Philippe F'evrier & Lionel Wilner, 2022. "Estimating the Gains (and Losses) of Revenue Management," Papers 2206.04424, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    8. Cordera, Rubén & Sañudo, Roberto & dell’Olio, Luigi & Ibeas, Ángel, 2018. "Trip distribution model for regional railway services considering spatial effects between stations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 77-84.
    9. Chris Nash, 2011. "Competition and Regulation in Rail Transport," Chapters, in: André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Emile Quinet & Roger Vickerman (ed.), A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 33, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. F. Cerina & L. Cocco & K. Mannaro & M. Marchesi & F. Pigliaru, 2020. "Insularity and the development of a local railway network," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 683-702, July.
    11. H. Schmale & T. Ehrmann & A. Dilger, 2013. "Buying without using -- biases of German BahnCard buyers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 933-941, March.
    12. Krygsman, Stephan & Dijst, Martin & Arentze, Theo, 2004. "Multimodal public transport: an analysis of travel time elements and the interconnectivity ratio," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 265-275, July.
    13. Juan Carlos García-Palomares & Javier Gutiérrez & Juan Carlos Martín & Concepción Román, 2013. "Modal accessibility disparity to terminals and its effect on the competitiveness of HST versus air transport," Chapters, in: Thomas Vanoutrive & Ann Verhetsel (ed.), Smart Transport Networks, chapter 7, pages 126-149, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Jinkyung Choi & Yong Lee & Taewan Kim & Keemin Sohn, 2012. "An analysis of Metro ridership at the station-to-station level in Seoul," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 705-722, May.
    15. Cheng, Yung-Hsiang, 2010. "High-speed rail in Taiwan: New experience and issues for future development," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 51-63, March.
    16. Nash, Chris & Smith, Andrew, 2020. "Public transport procurement in Britain," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    17. Preston, John & Robins, Dawn, 2013. "Evaluating the long term impacts of transport policy: The case of passenger rail privatisation," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 14-20.
    18. Rahman, Syed & Balijepalli, Chandra, 2016. "Understanding the determinants of demand for public transport: Evidence from suburban rail operations in five divisions of Indian Railways," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 13-22.
    19. W.F. Lythgoe & M. Wardman, 2002. "Demand for rail travel to and from airports," Transportation, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 125-143, May.
    20. Johansson, Erik & Camporeale, Rosalia & Palmqvist, Carl-William, 2020. "Railway network design and regional labour markets in Sweden," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:20:y:2007:i:1:p:119-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620614/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.