IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v169y2022ics1364032122008243.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Japan's pathways to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 – Scenario analysis using an energy modeling methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Ozawa, A.
  • Tsani, T.
  • Kudoh, Y.

Abstract

Innovative energy and environmental technologies have an important role in achieving carbon neutrality. However, uncertainties regarding the potential of these technologies still remain. For this reason, possible scenarios for such technologies must be developed to facilitate forward-looking decision-making on national energy strategies. This study investigated multiple scenarios of future energy systems in Japan to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 using a MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) energy model. Six cases were configured based on different assumptions of renewable and nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, and hydrogen import, and the CO2 emissions, primary energy supply, final energy consumption, and electricity generation were compared for the different cases. The scenario analysis results suggest that electric power systems in Japan should be fully decarbonized by 2040 in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, implying that renewable power generation should be dominant in the decarbonized electricity sector in Japan. The results also indicate that total energy supply and consumption in 2050 will be between 14.9–15.7 and 9.6–10.2 EJ, respectively, and that 211–256 Mt of CO2 will need to be removed using advanced CO2 removal technologies. The results further imply that CO2 removal technologies will become necessary when industrial decarbonization is difficult.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozawa, A. & Tsani, T. & Kudoh, Y., 2022. "Japan's pathways to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 – Scenario analysis using an energy modeling methodology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:169:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122008243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112943
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032122008243
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112943?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tsai, Miao-Shan & Chang, Ssu-Li, 2015. "Taiwan’s 2050 low carbon development roadmap: An evaluation with the MARKAL model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 178-191.
    2. Ichinohe, Masayuki & Endo, Eiichi, 2006. "Analysis of the vehicle mix in the passenger-car sector in Japan for CO2 emissions reduction by a MARKAL model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(10), pages 1047-1061, October.
    3. Chaube, Anshuman & Chapman, Andrew & Minami, Akari & Stubbins, James & Huff, Kathryn D., 2021. "The role of current and emerging technologies in meeting Japan’s mid- to long-term carbon reduction goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Matthias Finkenrath & Julian Smith & Dennis Volk, 2012. "CCS Retrofit: Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal-Fired Power Plant Fleet," IEA Energy Papers 2012/7, OECD Publishing.
    5. Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Rogan, Fionn & Deane, J.P. & Lavigne, Denis & Rout, Ullash K. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2013. "Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 169-189.
    6. Shi, Jingcheng & Chen, Wenying & Yin, Xiang, 2016. "Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1303-1312.
    7. Siskos, Pelopidas & Zazias, Georgios & Petropoulos, Apostolos & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & Capros, Pantelis, 2018. "Implications of delaying transport decarbonisation in the EU: A systems analysis using the PRIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 48-60.
    8. Hu, Ming-Che & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2010. "Analysis of multi-pollutant policies for the U.S. power sector under technology and policy uncertainty using MARKAL," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5430-5442.
    9. Steve Pye & Francis G. N. Li & James Price & Birgit Fais, 2017. "Erratum: Achieving net-zero emissions through the reframing of UK national targets in the post-Paris Agreement era," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 1-1, June.
    10. Steve Pye & Francis G. N. Li & James Price & Birgit Fais, 2017. "Achieving net-zero emissions through the reframing of UK national targets in the post-Paris Agreement era," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 1-7, March.
    11. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    12. Capros, Pantelis & Zazias, Georgios & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & Kannavou, Maria & Fotiou, Theofano & Siskos, Pelopidas & De Vita, Alessia & Sakellaris, Konstantinos, 2019. "Energy-system modelling of the EU strategy towards climate-neutrality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Miaomiao & Wu, Jun & Chen, Xinyu & Zhu, Xiaoxi, 2023. "Grandfathering or benchmarking? The performance of implementing blockchain technology in a low-carbon supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    2. Wang, Shanyong & Wang, Jing & Wang, Wenfu, 2023. "Do geopolitical risks facilitate the global energy transition? Evidence from 39 countries in the world," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Bahn, Olivier & Frenette, Erik & Sigvaldason, Oskar, 2017. "Exploring deep decarbonization pathways to 2050 for Canada using an optimization energy model framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 774-785.
    2. Hannan, M.A. & Faisal, M. & Jern Ker, Pin & Begum, R.A. & Dong, Z.Y. & Zhang, C., 2020. "Review of optimal methods and algorithms for sizing energy storage systems to achieve decarbonization in microgrid applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Tan, Xiujie & Sun, Qian & Wang, Meiji & Se Cheong, Tsun & Yan Shum, Wai & Huang, Jinpeng, 2022. "Assessing the effects of emissions trading systems on energy consumption and energy mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    4. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Pantelis Capros, 2021. "Simulating the Evolution of Business Models for Electricity Recharging Infrastructure Development by 2030: A Case Study for Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    6. Chen, Jiandong & Xu, Chong & Wang, Yuzhi & Li, Ding & Song, Malin, 2021. "Carbon neutrality based on vegetation carbon sequestration for China's cities and counties: Trend, inequality and driver," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. John Barrett & Steve Pye & Sam Betts-Davies & Oliver Broad & James Price & Nick Eyre & Jillian Anable & Christian Brand & George Bennett & Rachel Carr-Whitworth & Alice Garvey & Jannik Giesekam & Greg, 2022. "Energy demand reduction options for meeting national zero-emission targets in the United Kingdom," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 726-735, August.
    8. Chyong, Chi Kong & Newbery, David, 2022. "A unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the GB electricity market – Formulation and application to hydro pumped storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Patange, Omkar S. & Garg, Amit & Jayaswal, Sachin, 2022. "An integrated bottom-up optimization to investigate the role of BECCS in transitioning towards a net-zero energy system: A case study from Gujarat, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    10. Nagatomo, Yu & Ozawa, Akito & Kudoh, Yuki & Hondo, Hiroki, 2021. "Impacts of employment in power generation on renewable-based energy systems in Japan— Analysis using an energy system model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    11. Cai, Liya & Luo, Ji & Wang, Minghui & Guo, Jianfeng & Duan, Jinglin & Li, Jingtao & Li, Shuo & Liu, Liting & Ren, Dangpei, 2023. "Pathways for municipalities to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality: A study based on the LEAP model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    12. Antonín Lupíšek & Tomáš Trubačík & Petr Holub, 2021. "Czech Building Stock: Renovation Wave Scenarios and Potential for CO 2 Savings until 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    13. Zhenyu Zhuo & Ershun Du & Ning Zhang & Chris P. Nielsen & Xi Lu & Jinyu Xiao & Jiawei Wu & Chongqing Kang, 2022. "Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Broad, Oliver & Hawker, Graeme & Dodds, Paul E., 2020. "Decarbonising the UK residential sector: The dependence of national abatement on flexible and local views of the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Kang, Jia-Ning & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liu, Lan-Cui & Han, Rong & Yu, Bi-Ying & Wang, Jin-Wei, 2020. "Energy systems for climate change mitigation: A systematic review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    16. Sindhwani, Rahul & Singh, Punj Lata & Behl, Abhishek & Afridi, Mohd. Shayan & Sammanit, Debaroti & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2022. "Modeling the critical success factors of implementing net zero emission (NZE) and promoting resilience and social value creation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    17. Chang, Miguel & Thellufsen, Jakob Zink & Zakeri, Behnam & Pickering, Bryn & Pfenninger, Stefan & Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2021. "Trends in tools and approaches for modelling the energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    18. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Bahn, Olivier & Roy, Pierre-Olivier & Patreau, Valérie, 2018. "Is there a future for new hydrocarbon projects in a decarbonizing energy system? A case study for Quebec (Canada)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 114-130.
    19. Yang, Dewei & Liu, Dandan & Huang, Anmin & Lin, Jianyi & Xu, Lingxing, 2021. "Critical transformation pathways and socio-environmental benefits of energy substitution using a LEAP scenario modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    20. Sandrine Mathy & P. Menanteau, 2020. "Mitigation strategies to enhance the ambition of the nationally determined contributions : an analysis of 4 European countries with the decarbonization wedges methodology," Post-Print hal-03190845, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:169:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122008243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.