IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v135y2021ics1364032120303786.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Worldwide performance assessment of 95 direct and diffuse clear-sky irradiance models using principal component analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sun, Xixi
  • Bright, Jamie M.
  • Gueymard, Christian A.
  • Bai, Xinyu
  • Acord, Brendan
  • Wang, Peng

Abstract

Accurate estimations of clear-sky direct normal irradiance (DNIcs) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DIFcs) are crucial in solar resources assessment. This study examines 95 and 88 popular clear-sky irradiance models for their worldwide estimation capability of DNIcs and DIFcs, respectively. Atmospheric inputs are from MERRA-2 reanalysis and irradiance observations for validation are extracted from 100 ground stations across five major Köppen-Geiger climate zones. They consist of 24 million 1-min measurements of DINcs and 18.7 million 1-min measurements of DIFcs after quality control and clear-sky detection, during the 5-year period 2015–2019. Using principal component analysis, the performance of each clear-sky irradiance model is ranked separately among the five climate zones, as well as given a global rank. For the Equatorial, Arid, Temperate, Cold and Polar climates, it is found that Heliosat1-I, ESRA-I, REST2v9.1, REST2v9.1 and CLS, respectively, are the best DNIcs models, while Modified Iqbal-C, Heliosat1-R, Calinoiu, Modified Iqbal-C and PSI-REST are the best DIFcs models. On a global worldwide basis, the three top-ranking models are REST2v9.1, REST2v5 and MMAC-V2 for DNIcs, and Modified Iqbal-C, PSI-REST and MRMv5 for DIFcs. The results and rankings presented are strictly relative to MERRA-2 input data, and should not be extrapolated to results from alternate sources of atmospheric data. This detailed validation exercise revealed inconsistent performance of many models across different climates, possibly due to insufficient training and/or over-fitting of empirical relationships. Codes of all clear-sky irradiance models in the public domain are available online on the Github repository JamieMBright/clear-sky-models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Xixi & Bright, Jamie M. & Gueymard, Christian A. & Bai, Xinyu & Acord, Brendan & Wang, Peng, 2021. "Worldwide performance assessment of 95 direct and diffuse clear-sky irradiance models using principal component analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:135:y:2021:i:c:s1364032120303786
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.110087
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032120303786
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110087?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Badescu, Viorel & Gueymard, Christian A. & Cheval, Sorin & Oprea, Cristian & Baciu, Madalina & Dumitrescu, Alexandru & Iacobescu, Flavius & Milos, Ioan & Rada, Costel, 2013. "Accuracy analysis for fifty-four clear-sky solar radiation models using routine hourly global irradiance measurements in Romania," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 85-103.
    2. Janjai, S. & Sricharoen, K. & Pattarapanitchai, S., 2011. "Semi-empirical models for the estimation of clear sky solar global and direct normal irradiances in the tropics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4749-4755.
    3. Sun, Xixi & Bright, Jamie M. & Gueymard, Christian A. & Acord, Brendan & Wang, Peng & Engerer, Nicholas A., 2019. "Worldwide performance assessment of 75 global clear-sky irradiance models using Principal Component Analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 550-570.
    4. Gueymard, Christian A. & Bright, Jamie M. & Lingfors, David & Habte, Aron & Sengupta, Manajit, 2019. "A posteriori clear-sky identification methods in solar irradiance time series: Review and preliminary validation using sky imagers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 412-427.
    5. Badescu, Viorel & Gueymard, Christian A. & Cheval, Sorin & Oprea, Cristian & Baciu, Madalina & Dumitrescu, Alexandru & Iacobescu, Flavius & Milos, Ioan & Rada, Costel, 2012. "Computing global and diffuse solar hourly irradiation on clear sky. Review and testing of 54 models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1636-1656.
    6. Madkour, M.A. & El-Metwally, M. & Hamed, A.B., 2006. "Comparative study on different models for estimation of direct normal irradiance (DNI) over Egypt atmosphere," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 361-382.
    7. Gueymard, Christian A., 2005. "Importance of atmospheric turbidity and associated uncertainties in solar radiation and luminous efficacy modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 1603-1621.
    8. Kambezidis, H.D. & Psiloglou, B.E. & Karagiannis, D. & Dumka, U.C. & Kaskaoutis, D.G., 2017. "Meteorological Radiation Model (MRM v6.1): Improvements in diffuse radiation estimates and a new approach for implementation of cloud products," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 616-637.
    9. Antonanzas-Torres, F. & Urraca, R. & Polo, J. & Perpiñán-Lamigueiro, O. & Escobar, R., 2019. "Clear sky solar irradiance models: A review of seventy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 374-387.
    10. Gueymard, Christian A. & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio, 2015. "Validation of direct normal irradiance predictions under arid conditions: A review of radiative models and their turbidity-dependent performance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 379-396.
    11. Bashahu, M. & Laplaze, D., 1994. "An atmospheric model for computing solar radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 455-458.
    12. Gueymard, Christian A., 2014. "A review of validation methodologies and statistical performance indicators for modeled solar radiation data: Towards a better bankability of solar projects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1024-1034.
    13. Bright, Jamie M. & Sun, Xixi & Gueymard, Christian A. & Acord, Brendan & Wang, Peng & Engerer, Nicholas A., 2020. "Bright-Sun: A globally applicable 1-min irradiance clear-sky detection model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Zhenni & Wen, Xin & Tan, Qiaofeng & Fang, Guohua & Lei, Xiaohui & Wang, Hao & Yan, Jinyue, 2021. "Potential assessment of large-scale hydro-photovoltaic-wind hybrid systems on a global scale," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Ruiz-Arias, José A., 2021. "Aerosol transmittance for clear-sky solar irradiance models: Review and validation of an accurate universal parameterization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Tingting Zhu & Yuanzhe Li & Zhenye Li & Yiren Guo & Chao Ni, 2022. "Inter-Hour Forecast of Solar Radiation Based on Long Short-Term Memory with Attention Mechanism and Genetic Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Ruiz-Arias, José A., 2023. "SPARTA: Solar parameterization for the radiative transfer of the cloudless atmosphere," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Diane Palmer & Richard Blanchard, 2021. "Evaluation of High-Resolution Satellite-Derived Solar Radiation Data for PV Performance Simulation in East Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-24, October.
    6. Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Estimating 1-min beam and diffuse irradiance from the global irradiance: A review and an extensive worldwide comparison of latest separation models at 126 stations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    7. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent & Gutiérrez, Luis Antonio García & Bright, Jamie M. & Yang, Dazhi, 2022. "Benchmarks for solar radiation time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 747-762.
    8. Kostas Sinapis & Konstantinos Tsatsakis & Maarten Dörenkämper & Wilfried G. J. H. M. van Sark, 2021. "Evaluation and Analysis of Selective Deployment of Power Optimizers for Residential PV Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Yang, Dazhi & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2022. "Ensemble solar forecasting and post-processing using dropout neural network and information from neighboring satellite pixels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Gueymard, Christian A. & Hong, Tao & Kleissl, Jan & Huang, Jing & Perez, Marc J. & Perez, Richard & Bright, Jamie M. & Xia, Xiang’ao & van der Meer, Dennis & Peters, Ian , 2022. "A review of solar forecasting, its dependence on atmospheric sciences and implications for grid integration: Towards carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    11. Chen, Shanlin & Li, Mengying, 2022. "Improved turbidity estimation from local meteorological data for solar resourcing and forecasting applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 259-272.
    12. Ruiz-Arias, José A., 2022. "Spectral integration of clear-sky atmospheric transmittance: Review and worldwide performance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Paulescu, Eugenia & Paulescu, Marius, 2021. "A new clear sky solar irradiance model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2094-2103.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Xixi & Bright, Jamie M. & Gueymard, Christian A. & Acord, Brendan & Wang, Peng & Engerer, Nicholas A., 2019. "Worldwide performance assessment of 75 global clear-sky irradiance models using Principal Component Analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 550-570.
    2. Ruiz-Arias, José A., 2021. "Aerosol transmittance for clear-sky solar irradiance models: Review and validation of an accurate universal parameterization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Benkaciali, Saïd & Haddadi, Mourad & Khellaf, Abdellah, 2018. "Evaluation of direct solar irradiance from 18 broadband parametric models: Case of Algeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 694-711.
    4. Ruiz-Arias, José A., 2023. "SPARTA: Solar parameterization for the radiative transfer of the cloudless atmosphere," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Ruiz-Arias, José A., 2022. "Spectral integration of clear-sky atmospheric transmittance: Review and worldwide performance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Behar, O. & Sbarbaro, D. & Marzo, A. & Gonzalez, M. Trigo & Vidal, E. Fuentealba & Moran, L., 2020. "Critical analysis and performance comparison of thirty-eight (38) clear-sky direct irradiance models under the climate of Chilean Atacama Desert," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 49-60.
    7. Gueymard, Christian A. & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio, 2015. "Validation of direct normal irradiance predictions under arid conditions: A review of radiative models and their turbidity-dependent performance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 379-396.
    8. Antonanzas-Torres, F. & Urraca, R. & Polo, J. & Perpiñán-Lamigueiro, O. & Escobar, R., 2019. "Clear sky solar irradiance models: A review of seventy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 374-387.
    9. Chen, Shanlin & Li, Mengying, 2022. "Improved turbidity estimation from local meteorological data for solar resourcing and forecasting applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 259-272.
    10. Almorox, Javier & Voyant, Cyril & Bailek, Nadjem & Kuriqi, Alban & Arnaldo, J.A., 2021. "Total solar irradiance's effect on the performance of empirical models for estimating global solar radiation: An empirical-based review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Garniwa, Pranda M.P. & Lee, Hyunjin, 2023. "Intercomparison of the parameterized Linke turbidity factor in deriving global horizontal irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 285-298.
    12. Nollas, Fernando M. & Salazar, German A. & Gueymard, Christian A., 2023. "Quality control procedure for 1-minute pyranometric measurements of global and shadowband-based diffuse solar irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 40-55.
    13. Paulescu, Eugenia & Paulescu, Marius, 2021. "A new clear sky solar irradiance model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2094-2103.
    14. Gueymard, Christian A. & Bright, Jamie M. & Lingfors, David & Habte, Aron & Sengupta, Manajit, 2019. "A posteriori clear-sky identification methods in solar irradiance time series: Review and preliminary validation using sky imagers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 412-427.
    15. Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Kaur, Amanpreet & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Day-ahead resource forecasting for concentrated solar power integration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 866-876.
    16. Feng, Lan & Lin, Aiwen & Wang, Lunche & Qin, Wenmin & Gong, Wei, 2018. "Evaluation of sunshine-based models for predicting diffuse solar radiation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 168-182.
    17. Bright, Jamie M. & Sun, Xixi & Gueymard, Christian A. & Acord, Brendan & Wang, Peng & Engerer, Nicholas A., 2020. "Bright-Sun: A globally applicable 1-min irradiance clear-sky detection model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Badescu, Viorel & Gueymard, Christian A. & Cheval, Sorin & Oprea, Cristian & Baciu, Madalina & Dumitrescu, Alexandru & Iacobescu, Flavius & Milos, Ioan & Rada, Costel, 2012. "Computing global and diffuse solar hourly irradiation on clear sky. Review and testing of 54 models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1636-1656.
    19. Moldovan, Camelia Liliana & Păltănea, Radu & Visa, Ion, 2020. "Improvement of clear sky models for direct solar irradiance considering turbidity factor variable during the day," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 559-569.
    20. Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoglu, Fatih Onur & Edizkan, Rifat, 2018. "Novel short term solar irradiance forecasting models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 58-66.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:135:y:2021:i:c:s1364032120303786. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.