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Methodology for predicting sequences of mean monthly clearness index and daily solar radiation data in remote areas: Application for sizing a stand-alone PV system

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Listed:
  • Mellit, A.
  • Kalogirou, S.A.
  • Shaari, S.
  • Salhi, H.
  • Hadj Arab, A.

Abstract

In this paper, a suitable adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model is presented for estimating sequences of mean monthly clearness index (K¯t) and total solar radiation data in isolated sites based on geographical coordinates. The magnitude of solar radiation is the most important parameter for sizing photovoltaic (PV) systems. The ANFIS model is trained by using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) based on fuzzy logic (FL) rules. The inputs of the ANFIS are the latitude, longitude, and altitude, while the outputs are the 12-values of mean monthly clearness index K¯t. These data have been collected from 60 locations in Algeria. The results show that the performance of the proposed approach in the prediction of mean monthly clearness index K¯t is favorably compared to the measured values. The root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and estimated values varies between 0.0215 and 0.0235 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is less than 2.2%. In addition, a comparison between the results obtained by the ANFIS model and artificial neural network (ANN) models, is presented in order to show the advantage of the proposed method. An example for sizing a stand-alone PV system is also presented. This technique has been applied to Algerian locations, but it can be generalized for any geographical position. It can also be used for estimating other meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity and wind speed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mellit, A. & Kalogirou, S.A. & Shaari, S. & Salhi, H. & Hadj Arab, A., 2008. "Methodology for predicting sequences of mean monthly clearness index and daily solar radiation data in remote areas: Application for sizing a stand-alone PV system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1570-1590.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:33:y:2008:i:7:p:1570-1590
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2007.08.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mellit, A. & Benghanem, M. & Kalogirou, S.A., 2006. "An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar-radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(7), pages 705-722, July.
    2. Mellit, A. & Benghanem, M. & Arab, A. Hadj & Guessoum, A., 2005. "An adaptive artificial neural network model for sizing stand-alone photovoltaic systems: application for isolated sites in Algeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1501-1524.
    3. Kumar, Ravinder & Umanand, L., 2005. "Estimation of global radiation using clearness index model for sizing photovoltaic system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(15), pages 2221-2233.
    4. Santos, J.M. & Pinazo, J.M. & Cañada, J., 2003. "Methodology for generating daily clearness index index values Kt starting from the monthly average daily value K̄t. Determining the daily sequence using stochastic models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1523-1544.
    5. Agha, K. R. & Sbita, M. N., 2000. "On the sizing parameters for stand-alone solar-energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(1-4), pages 73-84, April.
    6. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklıoğlu, Erol & Özalp, Mehmet & Çağlar, Naci, 2005. "Forecasting based on neural network approach of solar potential in Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1075-1090.
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