IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v188y2022icp1120-1140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Self-calibrated hybrid weather forecasters for solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants

Author

Listed:
  • Hassan, Muhammed A.
  • Al-Ghussain, Loiy
  • Khalil, Adel
  • Kaseb, Sayed A.

Abstract

This study presents two novel ensemble forecasters that combine time delay and recurrent neural networks to predict the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), and ambient temperature (TMP). The weights of these forecasters are optimized to minimize the summation of squared errors between the actual and the forecasted values of sub-models during the previous forecasting step. The developed models have been benchmarked against typical forecasting models for three forecasting horizons. Afterward, the impact of forecasting errors on the power estimation of photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) plants was examined. The two proposed forecasters consistently outperformed persistence ones by up to 88.653%. Compared to the aggregated model, the newly proposed forecasters enhanced the predictions of GHI, DNI, and TMP by up to 39.392, 27.081, and 79.598% in terms of mean absolute error, and up to 21.501, 13.645, and 78.961% in terms of root mean square error. The absolute and relative performances of the proposed forecasters also improved as the forecasting horizon decreased. Finally, the performances of the daily and the instantaneously calibrated models were comparable in both plants. Hence, the daily calibrated model is generally recommended as it requires significantly lower computational costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassan, Muhammed A. & Al-Ghussain, Loiy & Khalil, Adel & Kaseb, Sayed A., 2022. "Self-calibrated hybrid weather forecasters for solar thermal and photovoltaic power plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1120-1140.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:188:y:2022:i:c:p:1120-1140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.02.098
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148122002476
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2022.02.098?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Voyant, Cyril & Darras, Christophe & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Poggi, Philippe, 2014. "Bayesian rules and stochastic models for high accuracy prediction of solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 218-226.
    2. Kaood, Amr & Abubakr, Mohamed & Al-Oran, Otabeh & Hassan, Muhammed A., 2021. "Performance analysis and particle swarm optimization of molten salt-based nanofluids in parabolic trough concentrators," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 1045-1062.
    3. Alizamir, Meysam & Kim, Sungwon & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad, 2020. "A comparative study of several machine learning based non-linear regression methods in estimating solar radiation: Case studies of the USA and Turkey regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Bailek, Nadjem & Bouchouicha, Kada & Hassan, Muhammed A. & Slimani, Abdeldjalil & Jamil, Basharat, 2020. "Implicit regression-based correlations to predict the back temperature of PV modules in the arid region of south Algeria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 57-67.
    5. Dong, Zibo & Yang, Dazhi & Reindl, Thomas & Walsh, Wilfred M., 2015. "A novel hybrid approach based on self-organizing maps, support vector regression and particle swarm optimization to forecast solar irradiance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 570-577.
    6. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Raj, Nawin & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Deep solar radiation forecasting with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Guijo-Rubio, D. & Durán-Rosal, A.M. & Gutiérrez, P.A. & Gómez-Orellana, A.M. & Casanova-Mateo, C. & Sanz-Justo, J. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Hervás-Martínez, C., 2020. "Evolutionary artificial neural networks for accurate solar radiation prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    8. Al-Ghussain, Loiy & Abubaker, Ahmad M. & Darwish Ahmad, Adnan, 2021. "Superposition of Renewable-Energy Supply from Multiple Sites Maximizes Demand-Matching: Towards 100% Renewable Grids in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    9. Hay, John E., 1993. "Calculating solar radiation for inclined surfaces: Practical approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-380.
    10. Sensfuß, Frank & Ragwitz, Mario & Genoese, Massimo, 2008. "The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3076-3084, August.
    11. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Khalil, A. & Kaseb, S. & Kassem, M.A., 2017. "Exploring the potential of tree-based ensemble methods in solar radiation modeling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 897-916.
    12. Eduardo Rangel & Erasmo Cadenas & Rafael Campos-Amezcua & Jorge L. Tena, 2020. "Enhanced Prediction of Solar Radiation Using NARX Models with Corrected Input Vectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, May.
    13. Prasad, Ramendra & Ali, Mumtaz & Kwan, Paul & Khan, Huma, 2019. "Designing a multi-stage multivariate empirical mode decomposition coupled with ant colony optimization and random forest model to forecast monthly solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 778-792.
    14. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Bailek, Nadjem & Bouchouicha, Kada & Nwokolo, Samuel Chukwujindu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term exogenous forecasting of photovoltaic power production using genetically optimized non-linear auto-regressive recurrent neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 191-209.
    15. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Akoush, Bassem M. & Abubakr, Mohamed & Campana, Pietro Elia & Khalil, Adel, 2021. "High-resolution estimates of diffuse fraction based on dynamic definitions of sky conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 641-659.
    16. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Khalil, Adel & Abubakr, Mohamed, 2021. "Selection methodology of representative meteorological days for assessment of renewable energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 34-51.
    17. Li, Shuai & Ma, Hongjie & Li, Weiyi, 2017. "Typical solar radiation year construction using k-means clustering and discrete-time Markov chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 720-731.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Fouad, Aya & Dessoki, Khaled & Al-Ghussain, Loiy & Hamed, Ahmed, 2023. "Performance analyses of supercritical carbon dioxide-based parabolic trough collectors with double-glazed receivers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Al-Ghussain, Loiy & Ahmad, Adnan Darwish & Abubaker, Ahmad M. & Khalil, Adel, 2022. "Aggregated independent forecasters of half-hourly global horizontal irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 365-383.
    2. Amein, Hamza & Akoush, Bassem M. & El-Bakry, M. Medhat & Abubakr, Mohamed & Hassan, Muhammed A., 2022. "Enhancing the energy utilization in parabolic trough concentrators with cracked heat collection elements using a cost-effective rotation mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 250-266.
    3. Feng, Yu & Hao, Weiping & Li, Haoru & Cui, Ningbo & Gong, Daozhi & Gao, Lili, 2020. "Machine learning models to quantify and map daily global solar radiation and photovoltaic power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Lu, Yunbo & Wang, Lunche & Zhu, Canming & Zou, Ling & Zhang, Ming & Feng, Lan & Cao, Qian, 2023. "Predicting surface solar radiation using a hybrid radiative Transfer–Machine learning model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Zeng, Sheng & Su, Bin & Zhang, Minglong & Gao, Yuan & Liu, Jun & Luo, Song & Tao, Qingmei, 2021. "Analysis and forecast of China's energy consumption structure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Fouad, Aya & Dessoki, Khaled & Al-Ghussain, Loiy & Hamed, Ahmed, 2023. "Performance analyses of supercritical carbon dioxide-based parabolic trough collectors with double-glazed receivers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    7. Ali, Mumtaz & Prasad, Ramendra & Xiang, Yong & Jamei, Mehdi & Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, 2023. "Ensemble robust local mean decomposition integrated with random forest for short-term significant wave height forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 731-746.
    8. Peng, Tian & Zhang, Chu & Zhou, Jianzhong & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad, 2021. "An integrated framework of Bi-directional long-short term memory (BiLSTM) based on sine cosine algorithm for hourly solar radiation forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    9. Guijo-Rubio, D. & Durán-Rosal, A.M. & Gutiérrez, P.A. & Gómez-Orellana, A.M. & Casanova-Mateo, C. & Sanz-Justo, J. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Hervás-Martínez, C., 2020. "Evolutionary artificial neural networks for accurate solar radiation prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    10. Guosheng Duan & Lifeng Wu & Fa Liu & Yicheng Wang & Shaofei Wu, 2022. "Improvement in Solar-Radiation Forecasting Based on Evolutionary KNEA Method and Numerical Weather Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, June.
    11. Acikgoz, Hakan, 2022. "A novel approach based on integration of convolutional neural networks and deep feature selection for short-term solar radiation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    12. Neshat, Mehdi & Nezhad, Meysam Majidi & Mirjalili, Seyedali & Garcia, Davide Astiaso & Dahlquist, Erik & Gandomi, Amir H., 2023. "Short-term solar radiation forecasting using hybrid deep residual learning and gated LSTM recurrent network with differential covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    13. Li, Qing & Zhang, Xinyan & Ma, Tianjiao & Jiao, Chunlei & Wang, Heng & Hu, Wei, 2021. "A multi-step ahead photovoltaic power prediction model based on similar day, enhanced colliding bodies optimization, variational mode decomposition, and deep extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    14. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining a deep learning model with multivariate empirical mode decomposition for hourly global horizontal irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 908-927.
    15. Jiang, Chengcheng & Zhu, Qunzhi, 2023. "Evaluating the most significant input parameters for forecasting global solar radiation of different sequences based on Informer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    16. El-Bakry, M. Medhat & Kassem, Mahmoud A. & Hassan, Muhammed A., 2021. "Passive performance enhancement of parabolic trough solar concentrators using internal radiation heat shields," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1), pages 52-66.
    17. Muhammed A. Hassan & Hindawi Salem & Nadjem Bailek & Ozgur Kisi, 2023. "Random Forest Ensemble-Based Predictions of On-Road Vehicular Emissions and Fuel Consumption in Developing Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, January.
    18. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining simple and less time complex ML models with multivariate empirical mode decomposition to obtain accurate GHI forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    19. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Abubakr, Mohamed & Khalil, Adel, 2021. "A profile-free non-parametric approach towards generation of synthetic hourly global solar irradiation data from daily totals," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 613-628.
    20. Assouline, Dan & Mohajeri, Nahid & Scartezzini, Jean-Louis, 2018. "Large-scale rooftop solar photovoltaic technical potential estimation using Random Forests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 189-211.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:188:y:2022:i:c:p:1120-1140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.